000
FXUS62 KMLB 200040
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
840 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...CONVECTION GOT AN EARLY START ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A RESULT THE SEA BREEZES
COLLIDED ACROSS LAKE AND POLK COUNTIES EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW
STRONG STORMS OCCURRED WITH THE COLLISION...BUT THE MAIN STORY
THROUGH THE DAY WAS HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING.

STORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY FOR MOST LAND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. HAVE
KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN FOR THE COAST WITH A FEW ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY
MOVE ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE CAPE LATE TONIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH
ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GA/FL BORDER TO SEE HOW FAR SOUTH IT
REACHES OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO REMAIN IN NORTH
FLORIDA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MONDAY...RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WINDS CONTINUING TO INCREASE MOISTURE. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NRN FL PENINSULA AND GENERATE
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW. MOS POP GUIDANCE
SEEMED A LITTLE HIGH SO UNDERCUT THEM SLIGHTLY WITH RAIN CHANCES
RANGING FROM 40 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST TO 50 PERCENT OVER THE
INTERIOR. INCREASING CONVECTION/CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL KEEP
HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR OVERNIGHT. LOCAL GROUND FOG MAY BRING
BRIEF MVFR VSBYS TOWARDS SUNRISE WITH A FEW COASTAL SHRAS POSSIBLE.
GREATER MOISTURE AND A DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE AREA TOMORROW WILL GENERATE GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC FLOW WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA AND SOUTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUING AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.  SEAS 2-4 FEET WITH DOMINANT
PERIODS 9 TO 11 SEC.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

MOSES/LASCODY