Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
856 FXUS62 KMLB 030656 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 256 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Today-Tonight...High pressure off of the eastern seaboard will continue to stretch southwestward towards the Florida peninsula, maintaining similar conditions to the previous several days. The east coast sea breeze will once again develop late this morning, then push inland through the afternoon, aided by prevailing onshore flow. Winds will increase to around 10-12mph along the sea breeze. Temperatures are forecast to remain in the mid-80s along the coast, while interior locations warm to the upper 80s to near 90. The change compared to the last few days will be additional dry air. Despite the summer-like pattern. PWATs of 1-1.1" will inhibit any updrafts, limiting convection through the afternoon. CAMs do suggest a few showers possibly forming west of Orlando late this afternoon, near the sea breeze collision. However, this is low confidence. Have added a 15% PoP for this area to cover the low chance. Regardless, significant dry air in the mid and upper levels is expected to prevent any thunderstorm development. Tonight, dry conditions will continue to prevail. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. The Weekend...Surface high pressure extending down the eastern seaboard to Florida continues to build in response to ridging aloft. Moisture from a decaying frontal boundary in the Deep South sags into Florida late Saturday into Sunday, which combined with a shortwave trough transiting through the mid-level flow, will support a modest chance for showers and lightning storms. GEFS mean PWATs increase from 1.1-1.3" early Saturday to 1.3-1.5" Sunday (deterministic GFS and ECM a little lower Saturday and a little higher Sunday), or between the 75-90th climatological percentiles for early May. However, most of the moisture will be in the mid- level (midRH around 80 pct but low RH around 40 pct), so it`ll take a pretty good oomph from the sea breeze to get parcels up to the LFC. Deeper convection that manages to develop will be met with both supportive 500mb temperatures around -10C, but also more dry air above 700mb that could be an updraft killer. Overall, have 20 pct PoPs for most locations Saturday evening, up to around 30 pct in the western interior near the sea breeze collision in the late evening, though the NAM 3KM suggests these are very generous and could be further west than currently advertised. Slightly higher rain chances (and confidence) Sunday thanks to the higher moisture, with 20 pct PoPs along the I-95 corridor through most of the day for onshore moving showers, and 30 pct PoPs inland in the afternoon and evening as the sea breeze pushes through. Isolated lightning storms that manage to develop will be capable of occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours. As for the rest of the forecast, overnight and early morning light easterly winds Saturday and southeasterly Sunday back a little while increasing to 10-15 mph, up to around 15 mph along the coastal corridor, in the afternoon with the sea breeze. Mostly clear skies become partly cloud from daytime and marine cu. Afternoon highs remains above normal inland in the M80s-90, and around normal along the coastal corridor thanks to onshore flow and the sea breeze in the L-M80s. Overnight lows also above normal in the M60s-L80s. Monday-Thursday...Mid-upper level high pressure over the Bay of Campeche builds and elongates in response to a broad trough over the CONUS, shifting the ridge axis aloft over Florida by late week, and resulting in 500mb heights increasing to the 90th climatological percentile. Attendant surface highs along the eastern seaboard and east CONUS merge and shift southeast, building across the subtropical Atlantic by late week, with the surface ridge axis draped across Central to South Florida. Southeasterly surface flow Monday and Tuesday, becoming east-southeasterly 10-15 mph in the afternoon with the sea breeze, veers to southerly Wednesday and Thursday as the surface ridge axis slides south, slowing development of the east coast sea breeze and potentially letting the west coast sea breeze reach the western interior through the latter part of the week. All this together will result in hot and dry conditions, with afternoon highs forecast to increase from the U80s-90 inland and L- M80s along the coastal corridor Monday, to the M-U90s inland and U80s-L90s along the coast corridor by Thursday, getting close to record high temperatures late in the week. Be sure to wear a hat to the HAT (Hurricane Awareness Tour) in Sanford on Thursday. Overnight lows increasing from the M60s-70 Monday night to the U60s-L70s late in the week. NBM keeps trying to suggest 20-30 pct PoPs Monday and 20 pct PoPs through the interior Tuesday, likely being driven by the ECM keeping moisture on the higher side earlier in the week, but the GFS continues to disagree with much lower moisture, so continue to dial those rain chances back to a token 20 pct along and north of the I-4 corridor Monday, with a slight chance of lightning storms, and a silent 10 pct Tuesday. Total agreement on very dry conditions from mid-week onward, increasing the fire weather risk once again. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFs) Issued at 228 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 VFR conditions prevailing, though some MIFG will be possible at DAB around sunrise (10-12Z). Onshore flow through the period will increase to around 10-12kts this afternoon as the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. A few showers could develop near LEE late this afternoon, but this is low confidence, so have not included a mention in the TAF there. Winds will decrease after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 228 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Today-Tonight...Generally favorable boating conditions prevailing. Onshore flow increasing to around 10-15kts late this morning into the afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Then, winds veer southeasterly overnight. A few showers possible offshore from the Treasure Coast this morning. Otherwise, dry. Seas 2-3ft. Saturday-Tuesday...Generally favorable boating conditions, minus the isolated to scattered showers and lightning storms possible this weekend. High pressure along the eastern seaboard and over Florida continues to build through the weekend, then shifts southeast across the subtropical Atlantic through next week, with the ridge axis shifting south from Central to South Florida. Winds Saturday through Monday SE-SSE 5-10 kts overnight and the early morning pick up to 10- 15 kts and back a bit in the afternoon with the sea breeze circulation. By Tuesday, winds begin to veer southerly as the ridge axis shifts south. Seas 2-3 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 228 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024 Min RH values between 35-40% are forecast today, with 40-45% this weekend, across the interior. Higher values for coastal areas. Drier conditions are forecast next week, as min RH once again falls to around 35% for much of the area by mid-week. Isolated lightning storms will be possible this weekend, with isolated to scattered showers. However, widespread wetting rainfall is not forecast through the next 7 days, so further fuel drying is expected. High temperatures will climb to well above normal through the period, with highs today in the mid-80s along the coast and upper 80s to near 90 over the interior increasing to as high as the mid to upper 90s next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 84 67 84 68 / 10 0 10 20 MCO 88 68 89 69 / 20 0 20 20 MLB 83 69 84 70 / 0 0 20 20 VRB 85 68 84 68 / 10 10 20 20 LEE 90 68 89 70 / 20 0 30 20 SFB 88 67 88 68 / 10 0 20 20 ORL 89 68 89 69 / 20 0 20 20 FPR 84 67 84 68 / 10 10 20 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Leahy LONG TERM...Haley AVIATION...Leahy