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000
FXUS62 KMLB 210125
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
924 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT/OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN THROUGH
LATE EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE COAST
SOUTH OF THE CAPE...ESPECIALLY TREASURE COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS TRAIN OR RE-DEVELOP OVER THE
SAME AREAS. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR IN THE EVENT AN URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY BECOMES NECESSARY. AN UPDATE TO THE
ZONES WILL BE FORTHCOMING LATER THIS EVENING TO CLEAN UP FIRST
PERIOD WORDING. LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER
60S/LOW 70S.

TUESDAY...PREVIOUS MODIFIED...CUTOFF 500MB LOW WILL PERSIST OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVELY HIGH
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION TO PRODUCE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS RANGING FROM
50-60 PERCENT WITH CONVECTION INCREASING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WIND
GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
THE MAIN THREATS. NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME
CELLS. WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST TO
UPPER 80S INLAND DUE TO EXPECTED HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING GROUND FOG POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
NEAR SITES THAT RECEIVED RAIN THIS PAST DAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TUE WITH INCREASING
CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT/TUE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE WATERS. SE WINDS 10-15 KTS. SEAS 3-5 FT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
GULF STREAM AND NEAR THE TREASURE COAST.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

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