000
FXUS62 KMLB 241950
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
350 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...
STRONG HI PRES RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GOMEX TO THE UPR MIDWEST
WILL GENERATE A DEEP N/NW FLOW ACRS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL DRIVE
A LATE SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY THRU CENTRAL FL OVERNIGHT. STRONG DRY
AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL RESULT WITH SKIES BCMG MCLR SHORTLY AFT
SUNSET. THE LCL PGRAD TIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE LCL AIRMASS FROM
DECOUPLING WHILE THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
FORCE SFC WINDS TO VEER TO THE NE. DESPITE MCLR SKIES...THE ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP THE LCL AIRMASS MIXED...RESULTING IN MIN TEMPS IN THE
M/U60S INTERIOR...U60S/L70S ALONG THE COAST.

SAT-SUN...
HI PRES WILL WEAKEN OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/GOMEX REGION BUT WILL REMAIN
THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE FOR CENTRAL FL. CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL BE
TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BEYOND A MARINE STRATOCU DECK...WHILE
THE RIDGE ITSELF WILL MAINTAIN A MID LVL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT
WILL EFFECTIVELY CAP THE LCL AIRMASS AOB 10KFT. FCST WILL REMAIN
DRY. RELATIVELY COOL/DRY AIR WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY THRU THE WEEKEND.
MAX TEMPS IN THE L80S ALONG THE COAST AND M80S INTERIOR...MIN TEMPS
L/M60S INTERIOR AND M/U60S ALONG THE COAST.

MON-FRI...(PREV DISC)
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL
PROVIDE AN EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A GRADUAL MODERATION
OF THE DRY AIR MASS WILL OCCUR AND SMALL POPS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST TUE IN THE SOUTH AND ACROSS THE AREA WED-FRI. THIS ONSHORE
FLOW PATTERN WITH LIMITED DEEP MOISTURE USUALLY FAVORS MAINLY
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS INLAND. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY GET BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 INLAND. MIN TEMPS WILL
MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND
MID-UPPER 60S INLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ALL SITES UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED. BTWN 24/20Z-25/01Z...ISOLD
MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS S OF KMLB-KBOW. BTWN 25/09Z-25/13Z...LCL IFR
VSBYS/CIGS IN SHALLOW MIFG N OF KTIX-KISM.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LCL PGRAD WILL TIGHTEN AS A HI PRES RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL FRESHEN OUT
OF THE N/NE...REACHING ARND 15KTS NEARSHORE AND 15-20KTS OFFSHORE
AFT MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT NEARSHORE AND 3-4FT OFFSHORE THRU
MIDNIGHT...BUILDING TO 3-5FT N OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND 2-4FT S OF THE
INLET BY DAYBREAK SAT.

SAT-SAT NIGHT....POOR BOATING CONDS AS HI PRES BUILDS OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL FRESHEN OUT
OF THE N/NE...ARND 15KTS NEARSHORE AND 15-20KTS OFFSHORE. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4-5FT AREAWIDE WITH AREAS ARND 6FT IN THE GULF STREAM.
WAVES WILL STAND UP AS WELL DUE TO THE OPPOSING NERLY WINDS/SRLY
GULF STREAM CURRENT...DOMINANT PDS DECREASING TO AOB 6SEC.

SUN-SUN NIGHT...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE HI PRES RIDGE OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH BEGINS TO WEAKEN. LCL PGRAD WILL SLACKEN...ALLOWING WINDS
TO VEER TO THE E/NE...DIMINISHING TO 10-15KTS N OF SEBASTIAN INLET
AND ARND 15KTS S OF THE INLET. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-4FT AREAWIDE...UP
TO 5FT IN THE GULF STREAM...DOMINANT PDS INCREASING TO 7-8SEC.

MON-TUE...(PREV DISC)
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. SLIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING IS INDICATED...SO EAST WINDS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS 15-20 KNOTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NERLY SFC/TRANSPORT WINDS THRU SUN AFTN AS HI PRES DOMINANTS THE WX
PATTERN OVER THE ERN CONUS. MID LVL DRY AIR ADVECTION THRU THE
WEEKEND WILL ALLOW MIN RH VALUES TO DROP AOB 35PCT FOR 3-5HRS ALONG
AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR THRU SUN AFTN. BREEZY CONDITIONS SAT AFTN
MAY GENERATE CONTAINMENT DIFFICULTIES...BUT CURRENT ERC VALUES IN
THE L/M20S LOOK TOO MARGINAL FOR A FIRE WX WATCH ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  69  81  63  80 /   0   0  10  10
MCO  69  87  63  86 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  71  82  68  81 /  10   0  10  10
VRB  71  82  67  81 /  10   0  10  10
LEE  67  88  61  88 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  68  87  62  86 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  69  87  63  86 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  71  83  68  81 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST