Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FNUS72 KMLB 171003
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for RA Test Burn...Florida Park Service
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
603 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 EDT on October 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A frontal boundary accompanied by showers and a
few storms will sink southward through Central Florida today then
stall across South Florida by tonight. Low level winds at the burn
site will be north immediately behind the front this morning and
become progressively northeast into the afternoon. Speeds will be
10-12 mph and occasionally 15 mph. Transport winds will also increase
out of the northeast 18-24 mph.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Showers likely and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 79.
Min humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......500-2400 ft AGL increasing to 2100-2500 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 10 to 18 mph increasing to 20 to 24
                    mph in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....11 increasing to 48.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 4 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........85  85  90  90  90  90  90  90  94  94  94  94
Weather cov.....LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60  60
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............73  73  73  74  76  77  77  78  78  77  76  75
RH..............93  93  93  90  85  82  82  76  76  79  85  87
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..7   7   8   8   9   10  12  12  12  13  13  13
20 FT wind gust.        10  10  10                  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.1
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.10  10  12  14  16  18  20  21  21  23  24  23
Dispersion idx..7   7   15  22  29  36  40  44  45  49  50  46
LVORI...........6   6   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Showers likely
                    and slight chance of thunderstorms early in the
                    evening, then chance of showers early in the
                    evening.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 2000, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 69.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 12 to 20 mph shifting to the north 7
                    to 12 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Dispersion index....36 decreasing to 9.
LVORI...............5 increasing to 6 after midnight.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........94     87     87     87     71     71
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60     40     40     40     40     40
LAL.............2      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............74     73     72     71     70     70
RH..............87     87     90     93     93     93
20 ft wind......NE 13  N 12   N 9    N 8    N 7    N 7
20 ft wind gust.15            10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....1900   1400   800    500    300    300
Transport wind..NE 20  NE 12  NE 12  NE 10  N 8    N 7
Dispersion idx..36     13     10     7      5      5
LVORI...........4      4      5      6      6      6

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of
                    showers.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 6 to 14 mph increasing to
                    around 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-1900 ft AGL increasing to 2700-3700 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....Northeast 7 to 15 mph increasing to 21 to 28
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 69.
LVORI...............6 decreasing to 4 late in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 1 early in the afternoon
                    increasing to 3 late in the afternoon.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........71        70        70        70
Weather cov.....CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).40        40        40        40
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............70        73        80        81
RH..............93        84        71        68
20 FT wind......N 7       NE 10     NE 13G15  NE 17G25
Mix hgt (ft)....300       1100      3000      3400
Transport wind..N 7       NE 15     NE 26     NE 28
Dispersion idx..5         20        64        71
LVORI...........6         4         3         1

$$
Forecaster...Sharp
Requested by...Benjamin Bandor
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717328.0/MLB
.EMAIL ben.bandor@dep.state.fl.us



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