Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FNUS72 KMLB 131438
FWSMLB

Spot Forecast for Pleasant Hill Rx...The nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1038 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on March 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Generally dry conditions, but can`t rule out a sprinkle or light
shower in the afternoon. Southwesterly to westerly winds 5-10
mph, becoming variable around 7-9 PM as weak east and west coast
sea breezes collides near or just east of the burn site. High
temperature and heat index in the L80s.

Min RHs around 45 pct. Transport winds SW 5-10 mph, but decent
mixing heights will result in Generally Good afternoon smoke
dispersion.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 6 to 8 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL increasing to 5200-5700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 8 mph shifting to the southwest in
the afternoon.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 50.
LVORI...............Decreasing to 1.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........27  25  34  38  40  50  54
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............75  78  80  82  83  83  83
RH..............66  58  52  49  46  46  46
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   7   7   8   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.7   8   8   9   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 3.9 4.5 5.1 5.2 5.6 5.7
Transp wind dir.S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.8   8   8   8   8   8   8
Dispersion idx..25  37  44  48  49  51  50
LVORI...........3   1   1   1   1   1   1

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 6 mph becoming light and
variable overnight.
Mixing height.......4300 ft AGL decreasing to 400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 6 to 7 mph becoming light and variable
overnight .
Dispersion index....Decreasing to 4.
LVORI...............Increasing to 7.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........54     59     42     31     33     37
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............82     76     71     68     66     63
RH..............46     60     71     78     84     93
20 ft wind......W 6    W 5    NW 5   N 3    N 3    N 3
20 ft wind gust.7      6      7      6      7      7
Mix hgt (ft)....4300   400    500    400    400    400
Transport wind..W 7    NW 6   NW 7   W 7    S 7    NE 6
Dispersion idx..36     4      4      3      3      3
LVORI...........1      3      3      4      5      6

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......400-1000 ft AGL increasing to 5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 6 mph shifting to the southeast
                    6 to 7 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Dispersion index....Increasing to 39.
LVORI...............Decreasing to 2.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........38        40        44        47
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0         10        10        10
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............63        68        79        84
RH..............93        84        60        49
20 FT wind......NE 3G6    E 5       E 6       SE 6
Mix hgt (ft)....400       1000      3200      5200
Transport wind..NE 5      E 6       E 6       SE 6
Dispersion idx..2         10        23        36
LVORI...........7         5         2         1

$$
Forecaster...Haley
Requested by...Adam Peterson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2406762.0/MLB
.DELDT 03/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL apeterson@tnc.org


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