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000
FXUS64 KMOB 141739 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1229 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.AVIATION...[18Z ISSUANCE]...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z WED. MAYBE A
FEW CUMULUS AROUND 5K FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN CLEAR OVERNIGHT
CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z WED. WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SOUTH AT 8 TO
12 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 6 TO 9 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING THEN VARIABLE LESS THEN 5 KNOTS LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z WED...BECOMING SOUTHEAST
THEN SOUTH AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS LATER IN THE DAY. 32/EE

&&

.SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
RESULT IN A SUNNY DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THE BROAD ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING LOW TEMPS WED MORNING TO ONCE AGAIN
FALL TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. 34/JFB

FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH THAT STRETCHES WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
WITH THE HELP OF DEEP LAYER COMPRESSIONAL SINKING/WARMING FROM AN
EASTWARD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY...RAIN REMAINS OUT OF THE
FORECAST WHILE DAILY HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM 83 TO 87. SOUTHERLY
FLOW OFF THE GULF TO KEEP HIGHS CLOSER TO 80 ALONG THE BEACH AREAS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS MORE MILD...WITH LOWS FROM THE MID 50S INTERIOR
TO LOWER TO MID 60S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...14.00Z MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER
MODELS BRING AN EASTWARD MOVING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON THURSDAY. INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. THE AXIS OF THE TROF TO PIVOT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AS THE
PASSAGE OF WEAK MID DISTURBANCES IN THE EVOLVING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL COMBINE WITH DAILY SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. SAME CAN BE SAID FOR
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT PRIMARILY FROM THE MOBILE RIVER
DELTA...EASTWARD. AXIS OF UPPER RIDGE NOSING NORTHWARD OFF THE GULF
ON SUNDAY LOOKS TO MITIGATE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS TO 10% OR LESS.
THEN BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS FOR MONDAY.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH THE
OUTLOOK...WITH FORECAST AREA TO REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH. DAILY HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE
IN THE MID...TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. LOWS TRENDING IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. CLOSER TO 70 AT THE BEACHES. /10

&&

.AVIATION (12Z ISSUANCE)...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME PATCHY MVFR
FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN A GENERALLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS 1-2 FT. 34/JFB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED TODAY DUE TO A LONG
DURATION OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM 24 TO 28% FOR MANY AREAS
NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEEP DAYTIME MIXED LAYERS THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS WILL RESULT IN GOOD DISPERSION INDICES...AT OR ABOVE 75...
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      82  55  84  60  81 /  00  00  00  05  20
PENSACOLA   80  59  84  64  81 /  00  00  00  05  20
DESTIN      78  61  80  66  79 /  00  00  00  05  20
EVERGREEN   84  52  86  56  85 /  00  00  00  05  20
WAYNESBORO  84  52  87  57  82 /  00  00  00  10  20
CAMDEN      84  53  86  55  84 /  00  00  00  05  20
CRESTVIEW   84  50  87  56  85 /  00  00  00  05  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$