Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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500 FXUS64 KMOB 302015 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL Issued by National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 315 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Wednesday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue pushing out of the area as a vigorous upper shortwave trough slowly progresses off the east coast. Following this, ridging aloft will build in to our east with surface high pressure also building over the southeastern US. Tonight, fog and low stratus both appear likely across the area with some locally dense fog possible as a warm nose appears evident just below 1km. If surface winds continue to die down with clear skies prevailing throughout the evening, more widespread dense fog may be possible. Tonight, low temperatures are forecast to bottom out in the low to mid 60s inland with upper 60s near the coast. Tomorrow, clear skies and benign weather will prevail as large-scale subsidence keeps skies clear. Surface winds will be variable through the afternoon before once again becoming southerly with high pressure to our east. High temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s areawide. /TAE SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Upper ridging will continue to remain in place through the short and long term with southerly flow at the surface persisting as well. A few shortwave upper troughs are expected to pass through the south/central plains before ejecting off through the MS River Valley to the Great Lakes region as upper ridging over the Southeast holds strong. With the better forcing confined to our northernmost AL and MS counties, PoP`s will generally range from 15-30% Friday through Sunday. Some instability will be present as a result of the persistent southerly flow with scattered showers and thunderstorms appearing possible across the aforementioned areas. With large-scale subsidence aloft as upper ridging persists through the extended forecast, temperatures will trend toward seasonally high with afternoon high temperatures generally hitting the mid 80s to perhaps as high as 90 north of I-10. Areas south of I-10 can expect highs in the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows through the extended period will generally remain in the 60s. /TAE && .MARINE... Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Winds will generally taper off as high pressure slides into the forecast area mid-week. Light southerly flow will prevail with occasional increases to around 10-15mph each afternoon as the seabreeze propagates inland. With high pressure over the area, no storms are expected over the next few days. /TAE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 64 87 64 85 66 85 65 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 Pensacola 66 83 65 82 67 82 67 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Destin 68 82 68 81 69 82 69 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 Evergreen 61 87 60 89 62 88 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 20 Waynesboro 60 89 61 89 64 84 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 20 20 Camden 61 85 60 89 64 85 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 20 20 Crestview 62 88 60 89 61 88 62 88 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob