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000
FXUS64 KMOB 191152
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
652 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Low ceilings continue to plague the area this morning with several
spots dipping to MVFR and IFR levels. The exception is at KMOB
where visibilities and ceilings dropped to VLIFR around sunrise.
Ceilings and visibilities should begin to improve by 14-15z area-
wide. A few showers are possible north of Highway 84 late this
afternoon, but the rest of the area remains dry. Southwesterly winds
ramp up to 10-15 kts this afternoon at the terminals before
becoming calm overnight. Fog and low ceilings will be impactful
again in the pre-dawn hours on Saturday. 07/mb

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Saturday)
Issued at 429 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Main forecast concern through early this weekend continues to be low
ceilings and patchy fog each morning given the light winds and ample
moisture. Low ceilings continue to plague the area as of 08z, which
aligns with the current SREF guidance. Visibilities continue to
bounce around, but have generally remained above 1sm overnight (thus
far). A stratus deck moving in from the west may help to keep
visibilities from tanking over the coming hours. That said, we will
continue to monitor fog trends in satellite imagery, observations,
and area webcams throughout the pre-dawn hours and will issue an
advisory if necessary. Expect a similar pattern for Friday night
into early Saturday with ceilings dropping around midnight or so.

Most of the area remains dry today with the only chance for rain
remaining north of the Highway 84 corridor this afternoon. Winds
remain southwesterly through the day as the surface ridge keeps a
firm grip over the eastern Gulf. HREF guidance indicates that PWATs
will gradually increase to 1.4-1.5 inches later today as moisture
steadily slides into the area from the west-southwest. A cold front
slides toward the area throughout the day, likely approaching our
northernmost counties late tonight. The front will likely pump the
breaks as it moves into our CWA given the zonal flow aloft and weak
surface ridging sitting to our south over the eastern Gulf. While we
can`t rule out a few showers or potentially a storm across our
northernmost counties this afternoon ahead of the front, we`re not
seeing as much ascent aloft (in comparison to past model runs) to
kick off much convection today. However, a few subtle shortwaves
move into the region by late Saturday morning, which will help to
kick off scattered showers and storms, especially by the afternoon
hours, as the front drifts south and deeper into the area. While
there isn`t much shear in place ahead of the front, there`s ample
instability for the storms to tap into on Saturday afternoon. Can`t
rule out a few strong storms with gusty winds in the afternoon hours.

Beach Note: Risk of rip currents remains MODERATE through this
evening and drops to LOW this weekend. The risk of rip currents
increases to a MODERATE again by Tuesday. 07/mb

SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 420 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Zonal flow will quickly become northwesterly in the wake
of the subtle shortwave that will bring us rain during the day
Sunday. Sunday will be the only chance for rain next week as a
very weak and subtle subtropical impulse will move across the
westerly flow. This will lead to a rather small window of ascent
over the area along the slowly sagging surface boundary draped
across the area. Expect overrunning rain and maybe some thunder
across the area Sunday morning into the early afternoon. The
surface cold front will move offshore leading to drier conditions
returning. Dry northwesterly flow will temporarily work its way
into the area monday leading to a cooler and drier forecast
through the middle of the week. Behind the front temperatures will
drop into the 70s for highs and 40s for lows before steadily
increasing back into the 80s for highs and 60s for lows by
Thursday. 03/13

MARINE...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms on Sunday. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      84  66  84  59  68  47  73  49 /   0   0  20  30  80  10   0   0
Pensacola   82  67  82  64  71  51  73  54 /   0   0  10  10  70  10   0   0
Destin      80  67  80  66  73  54  74  57 /   0   0  10  10  60  20   0   0
Evergreen   88  64  85  57  66  44  73  45 /   0   0  30  30  80  10   0   0
Waynesboro  87  65  80  51  60  43  70  44 /  10  10  40  60  80   0   0   0
Camden      86  64  81  52  60  43  69  44 /  20  20  30  50  80   0   0   0
Crestview   88  63  87  60  73  46  75  47 /   0   0  20  10  70  10   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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