903
FXUS64 KMOB 291748
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
Issued by National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1248 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A line of convection is approaching the terminals this afternoon.
Based on forward motion of this convection, MOB and BFM should see
showers producing MVFR visibilities of 3 to 5 miles move in by
22z. Lighter rainfall will affect JKA and PNS as the convective
line weakens between 00z and 06z as it moves into Baldwin County,
and only have PROB30 mention of reduced visibilities at PNS from
09z to 14z. After 14z, all of the terminals will see improved
visibilities as the rain band dissipates. However, low stratus
will linger through the end of the forecast window with IFR
conditions forecast at MOB.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

We will finally be looking at a chance for rain today and tonight,
as as upper level ridging slides eastward and out over the western
Atlantic. At the same time, a couple of upper level shortwaves will
move into the Lower Mississippi Valley region and across our area.
The remnants of a MCS that is moving east-southeast across LA early
this morning will move into our area from the west this afternoon in
association with the first shortwave, but will likely be dissipating
as it does so. Even as it dissipates, still looking at about a 40-60
percent PoP over the western half of our forecast area (especially
for our MS zones) by late this afternoon, where scattered to locally
numerous showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible. There
could be a break in the showers and storms this evening, but
coverages will likely increase again overnight (especially after
midnight) in association with the second shortwave that is expected
to move east across the area when we will again be looking at about
a 40-60 percent PoP across the area.

There are still some discrepancies in the models in both how much
the current MCS remnants hold together as they move into the area
this afternoon, and especially as to the coverage of the possible
overnight into Tuesday activity. MLCAPE values could still increase
up to 500-1000 J/KG, locally 1500 J/KG this afternoon across
southeast Mississippi and far southwest Alabama this afternoon,
which will be sufficient to support thunderstorms. However, low
level and deep layer shear does not appear to be overly impressive
so the overall severe threat remains marginal, and mainly over our
MS zones at this time, per the Marginal Risk from SPC. If the
convective line is able to maintain itself tomorrow afternoon, there
could be a strong or perhaps severe storm tomorrow afternoon capable
of producing damaging wind gusts mainly over our southeast
Mississippi and southwest Alabama counties, but confidence in this
potential remains low at this time. Some guidance indicates a
slightly more unstable airmass over the region late tonight into
early Tuesday morning, and some slightly increased shear as well, so
if storms do redevelop overnight into Tuesday with the passage of
the second shortwave, there could be a minimal severe risk (mainly
strong winds) then as well. Will maintain about a 40 percent Pop
across the area during the day on Tuesday.

Highs both today and Tuesday will mainly in the low 80s (with a few
mid 80s over interior MS zones on Tuesday). Lows tonight will range
from the lower 60s inland to the mid and upper 60s closer to and
along the coast (maybe a few lower 70s on the barrier islands).

Beach Note: Persistent onshore flow will continue to result in
deadly rip currents and increased surf heights along all area
beaches through the early part of the week. The HIGH risk of rip
currents remains in effect through late Tuesday night, and a High
Surf Advisory remains in effect through early this evening as surf
in the 3-5 foot range continues. DS/12

SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 439 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

In the wake of an exiting shortwave trough over the Southeast, an
upper ridge builds north over the eastern Conus. Deep layer
southerly flow becomes organized through the latter half of the
week, bringing Gulf moisture inland. The influx of moisture is well
west of the forecast area mid week, but shifts eastward into the
weekend. Shortwave troughs pass Friday into Friday night, then again
Sunday. The upper ridge maintains enough strength to deflect the
bulk of the energy north of the forecast area, limiting best PoPs to
northwest and northern portions of the forecast area with each
passing trough, along with limiting rain chances to isolated to low
end scattered. Subsidence from the upper ridge will help to keep
temperatures above to well above seasonal norms through the period.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s well inland with around 80
near and along the coast are expected. Low temperatures are expected
to range from around 60 to the low 60s north of Highway 84 to mid
60s/upper 60s closer to and along the coast.
/16



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      67  84  64  85  65  86  66  84 /  60  30   0  10   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   69  81  65  82  66  82  68  83 /  30  70   0  10   0   0   0  10
Destin      70  79  68  82  68  82  69  83 /   0 100   0  10   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   64  84  60  88  61  90  62  87 /  70  70  10  10   0  10   0  10
Waynesboro  62  84  60  87  62  88  63  85 /  70   0   0  20   0  10  10  30
Camden      63  82  60  86  60  88  63  86 /  70  50   0  10   0  10   0  20
Crestview   63  84  60  89  61  90  62  88 /  20 100   0  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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