797
AWUS01 KWNH 272328
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-280526-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0187
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
727 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Areas affected...central/northern Missouri, southeastern Iowa,
western Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272326Z - 280526Z

Summary...Scattered convection continues to produce spots of 1-2
inch/hr rain rates from east-central Kansas into north-central
Missouri.  At least an isolated flash flood risk will exist in
this regime as storms move eastward toward the Mississippi River
Valley through the early evening.

Discussion...A complicated convective scenario continues to unfold
across the discussion area.  A convective cluster over
north-central Missouri had produced areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain
rates at times over the last few hours, and continues to do so
across north-central Missouri west of Kirksville at this time.
Upstream, a separate area of convection continues to deepen
near/east of the Kansas City area that is likely tied to 1) strong
low-level warm advection from 25-40 kt 850 flow across Missouri
and 2) an approaching convective complex across southeastern
Kansas.  The airmass downstream of these storms was quite
unstable/moist (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 1.3+ inch PW values) and
weakly inhibited, which should continue to support thunderstorm
development downstream toward the Mississippi River Valley through
03-05Z.

Although the overall scenario supports deep convection and heavy
rainfall, mechanisms for training/repeating are unclear except for
on a very localized basis (for instance - west of Kirksville).
This appears to be a limiting factor for a larger flash flood
threat in the short term, although trends will need to be
monitored for cell mergers, or perhaps isolated cells that can
develop out ahead of ongoing convection and merge, prolonging rain
rates in a few local areas.  FFG thresholds are in the 1.5-2
inch/hr range, and should be approached on at least a localized
basis as storms migrate east-northeastward across the discussion
area.  Flash flooding is possible with this scenario through 05Z.

Cook

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41519075 41228980 40278958 39179036 38549205
            38489394 39149456 40309428 41089318 41359228