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000
FNUS73 KMPX 201206
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Arcola Rx Fire...NPS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
706 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 20.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Clouds will slowly decrease in coverage through
the day today but no precipitation is expected. Winds will come
from the NW with sustained speeds peaking at around 15mph with
around 20mph. RH values will bottom out in the 30-35 percent range
late this afternoon.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Temperature.........36 at ignition...Max 48.
RH..................56 percent at ignition...Min 32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds northwest at 13 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Northwest winds 13 to 14
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent /85000 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /96400 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 5700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 20 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 4.

TIME (CDT)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   6 PM   8 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............36     39     43     46     47     42
RH..............56     50     45     37     32     41
20 ft wind......NW 13  NW 13  NW 13  NW 14  NW 12  W 9
20 ft wind gust.18     18     20     21     17     14
Mix hgt (kft)...4.5    4.9    5.4    5.6    5.7    0.5
Transport wind..NW 22  NW 20  NW 20  NW 20  NW 20  W 10
Haines index....3      3      4      4      4      5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). Widespread frost
                    after 3 am.
Temperature.........Min 30.
RH..................Max 72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (97200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 14 to 20 mph shifting to the west 10
                    to 14 mph early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent). Widespread frost early in
                    the morning.
Temperature.........Max 60.
RH..................Min 29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (101600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (66700
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......6300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Calderone
Requested by...scott weyenberg
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411485.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL scott_weyenberg@nps.gov