484
FNUS73 KMPX 061249
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Burman Rx...MNDNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
749 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0745 CDT on May 06.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
For Burman RX, Breezy southeast winds develop by late
morning, with occasional winds gusts over 30 mph possible.
Increasing humidity with the southeast flow will keep RH values
fairly high however, with min values staying at or above 40%.
Southeast winds ramp up to 15 to 20 mph range with southeast
transport winds 20 to 25 mph. Skies start mostly sunny with a
few high clouds, but additional mid-high level clouds build in
this afternoon. Temperatures will quickly warm into the 60s
with a high in the lower 70s.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
Temperature.........51 at ignition...Max 72.
RH..................80 percent at ignition...Min 38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 8 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Southeast winds 6 to 15
                    mph increasing to 16 to 18 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /6800 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /97800 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 21 mph increasing to 22 to 25
                    mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Sky cover.......MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............48  51  56  62  66  67  70  71  72  72  72  71
RH..............80  77  69  60  52  45  41  39  38  39  38  39
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   8   12  13  15  15  16  17  18  18  17  16
20 FT wind gust.9   13  17  20  23  23  24  26  28  28  26  24
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.6 1.4 2.4 3.8 4.2 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.2
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.12  14  18  21  22  24  24  24  24  24  25  25
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers and
                    chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Temperature.........Min 55.
RH..................Max 92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 16 to 21 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms overnight.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (92600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (12600 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 17 to 25 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent). Rain showers and slight
                    chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then
                    chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 67.
RH..................Min 59 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 13 to 16 mph shifting to the
                    south 10 to 12 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the morning and early afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (14000 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (99200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......6200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 21 mph shifting to the southwest 17
                    to 18 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Hewett
Requested by...Kevin Berens
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413249.0/MPX
.DELDT 05/06/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kevin.berens@state.mn.us