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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 241900
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...-- Changed Discussion --CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS
A COLD FRONT JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...WITH A LARGE DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. A DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT...AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW CONTINUING ALOFT. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS ARE NOT THE MOST
OPTIMAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...WITH THE NAM GUIDANCE
TEMPS ACTUALLY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO A TEMP
INVERSION. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MENTIONING
PATCHY FROST OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHEAST TN...MAINLY IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE NAM AND GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHICH
STILL RESULTS IN NEAR RECORD TEMPS FOR THE 25TH (CHA 46...TYS
44...OQT 40...AND TRI 42).

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
WILL BE SLOW TO PULL AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND...
LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND COOLER AND DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS WELL. HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK HOWEVER...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE OHIO/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND FLATTEN. THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASING THICKNESS VALUES
AND A SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THERE WILL STILL BE
A GOOD MOISTURE FETCH OFF OF THE GULF WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
LOW-END DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK /PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATES OVER
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE/. FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK TO CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF MAY.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 78 50 82 56 / 0 0 10 10 10
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN 45 76 50 77 55 / 0 0 10 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 45 76 48 78 54 / 0 0 10 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 38 72 44 70 49 / 0 0 10 10 10-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DMG/AMP

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