Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 262012 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 312 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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TONIGHT AND THANKSGIVING DAY... AS THE SHORTWAVE THAT CAUSED ALL THE SNOW THIS MORNING MOVES NORTHEAST...CLOUDS LINGER OVER SOUTHWEST VA AND NE TN CAUSING TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. MEANWHILE...FARTHER SOUTH WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN ABUNDANT TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER 50S. THE NEXT QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER NE AR/W TN. SOME LIGHT RAIN WAS ALREADY NOTED IN NE AR JUST SOUTH OF THE MO STATE LINE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THERE ARE DRIER LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIP ACTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 7PM ET...AND GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST. LOOK FOR LIGHT RAIN TO BEGIN FIRST AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE AND WETBULB COOLING OCCURS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHEST POPS AND QPF OCCURRING OVER NE TN AND SW VA. THE CHALLENGE COMES IN HOW THE GROUND TEMPS PLAY IN ACTUAL ACCUMULATIONS. THERE APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT GENERALLY NORTH OF I-40 AND E OF I- 75 WITH ABOUT A 6 TO 8 HOUR DURATION. THE HIGHER TERRAIN STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FAVORED SPOTS TO RECEIVE THE BULK OF SNOWFALL HOWEVER WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL LIKELY AND SNOW...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TOMORROW. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN AFTER NOON HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW SPOTS WHERE RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR IN SW VA AND THE TN MOUNTAINS. CLOUDS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THANKSGIVING. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST A 5 DEGREE COOL-DOWN FROM TODAY/S TEMPS AS THE COOLER AIR ALOFT DESCENDS. /AC .LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...OFFENDING MID WEEK SHORT WAVE MOVES AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE MORE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING FOR A DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY MODELS GENERATE A MORE ACTIVE FLOW COMPLETE WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AS WARMER AIR RETURNS AHEAD OF A ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. THEREFORE...SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS WERE USED ON SUNDAY. THE MOIST COLUMN AND LIFT INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. HELD ONTO MORE SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE APPEARS TO TRAVERSE THE MID SOUTH. STAYED CLOSE GUIDANCE MAX AND MIN TEMPS WHICH ALLOW FOR A NICE WARMING TREND SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 35 46 25 47 / 30 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 33 43 23 45 / 50 30 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 34 43 24 44 / 50 20 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 31 42 20 41 / 90 60 10 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE. TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE- COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-JOHNSON-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER- SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI- WASHINGTON TN. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.
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&& $$

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