Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 230640 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 240 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEAK COOL ADVECTION WILL BE OFFSET BY PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUN AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FOR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE DRY AIR AND LOW DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S EXPECTED. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY AND ABOUT AVERAGE LATE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. INSTABILITY RATHER WEAK AND FORCING NOT IMPRESSIVE...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OUR MAIN WEATHER FEATURES FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 74 45 77 58 / 0 0 10 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 42 76 57 / 0 0 0 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 72 42 76 57 / 0 0 10 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 38 75 50 / 0 0 0 60
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MJB/LW

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