Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 031906 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 306 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...WILL BE TRANSITIONING INTO AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND WEAKENING BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED FOR 20 TO 30 POPS WITH BETTER COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT VERY EARLY WILL TRANSITION TO NW FLOW...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND ROCKIES WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN STATES. LIKELY THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FACTOR WILL BE THE EAST-WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS BY THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE DOES NOT ALLOW THE DROPPING OF RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND...DUE TO A HINT OF MORE WEAK IMPULSES IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT PLUS DAYTIME HEATING AND ANY WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ENSEMBLES SHOW RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS HEADED OUR WAY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SO I STAYED ON THE VERY LOW END OF POPS FOR NOW...A BIT BELOW THE SUPERBLEND POPS. FOR TEMPS...FOLLOWED THE GFS MOS EARLY...A MOS BLEND IN THE MIDDLE... THEN THE SUPERBLEND OFFERINGS LATE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 95 73 93 / 10 10 10 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 92 70 90 / 10 20 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 67 91 68 89 / 10 20 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 65 89 65 88 / 20 30 20 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MJB/TG

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