Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 192012 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 312 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Tuesday)... A ridge of high pressure both surface and aloft will remain across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians. Moisture will remain quite limited, especially above 800mb, with PWs generally at or below 1 inch. Overall, dry conditions anticipated. Upslope flow into the southeast Tennessee will keep low-level clouds and some fog into these areas overnight and early Tuesday morning. For Tuesday, tightening pressure gradient will produce gusty south to southwest winds during the afternoon. Main weather story will remain the unseasonably warm conditions with highs some 20+ degrees above normal. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)... The longwave pattern is unchanged this week. Troughing in the West and ridging across the southeastern states through Friday. Warm and humid conditions will continue into the weekend. Rain chances increase Wednesday as a weak front moves into the Ohio River Valley and then moves into the counties to the northwest of the area Thursday. The ridge stays strong enough that only weak impulses move through late Wednesday into Thursday with rainfall amounts mainly less than one inch. Thunderstorms will be possible in a low CAPE and high shear environment. The ridge then rebuilds Friday into Saturday. Late Saturday into Sunday the front finally makes progress across the area with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. Will have lower pops Thursday night through Friday night then increasing again Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal Tuesday night through Sunday then cooler Monday. Highs Wednesday through Friday in the 70s with Wednesday just as warm as Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 76 61 77 / 10 10 30 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 75 58 77 / 10 10 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 55 75 59 76 / 0 10 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 75 50 76 / 10 10 10 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$

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