Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 301849 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 249 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
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MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER KS/OK WILL APPROACH THE AREA. IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING LOW...850-700 MB WINDS WILL BECOME S-SE...ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TOMORROW. THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT THE MOST CLOUDS AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES APPEAR TO BE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SW NC TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT SHOULD PREVENT PRECIP FROM COMING INTO THE VALLEY. LIFT IS FAIRLY WEAK HOWEVER...AND APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB VORT MAX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THUS POPS WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE...AND ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. TRI APPEARS LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER RECORD LOW TONIGHT (RECORD IS 56) AS NORTHERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH CALM WINDS. TYS WILL BE CLOSE (58)...AND THE CHA RECORD SHOULD BE SAFE (58) WHERE HIGH/MID CLOUDS SHOULD BE THICKER. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...PLACING US UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL AID THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE TRACKING ALONG THE UPPER FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL ALSO BRING WEAK DYNAMICS AND WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS WILL ADD TO NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION AND PROVIDE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE DISTURBANCE PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH TO ISOLATED CONVECTION. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN BY WEDNESDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 61 81 64 82 / 0 20 20 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 59 83 62 80 / 0 10 20 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 58 82 62 81 / 0 10 20 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 82 59 77 / 10 10 30 50
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/MJB

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