Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 020911 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 400 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BEFORE STALLING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY NORTH. ANY LINGERING MORNING RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL DIMINISH...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE POP SOUTH ZONES EVEN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE FRONT WHERE THE DRYING WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED. MOISTURE WILL START TO RETURN NORTH OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT STARTS TO WORK BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AGAIN...AND WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS SOUTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPS MAY DIP TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW FREEZING EARLY IN THE NIGHT...BUT EXPECT THAT BY THE TIME PRECIP ARRIVES TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AS THE WARM ADVECTION INCREASES...SO JUST RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM MAV TEMPS. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...AN ATMOSPHERIC BATTLE IS IN THE WORKS THIS WEEK AS A WELCOME SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BULGES NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BRINGING A HINT OF SPRING TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...AS THE SEASONS BATTLE FOR DOMINANCE A DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMOVE THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK RESULTING IN A RETURN TO WINTER. THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TWO PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING SOME WARM AIR TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE COMPLIMENTS OF THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO. PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE QUITE HIGH BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE BEING LIFTED BY A WARM FRONT. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE SPREADING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE NATION LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND THE DEEP RIVER OF MOIST AIR SPREADING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH WILL LEAD TO A WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FADE AWAY WITH EACH MODEL RUN WITH INSTABILITY LACKING SO TRIMMED BACK THE CHANCE OF THUNDER KEEPING IT OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FORECASTS ALSO CONTINUE A TREND OF SLOWING THE ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEARLY PARALLELING THE FRONT. MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL BE OOZING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COLD AIR WILL BE UNDERCUTTING THE DEEP RIVER OF MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES LEADING TO A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE COULD BE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN FEATURES. HOWEVER...WITH SO MUCH COLD AIR SPILLING INTO THE REGION WITH MOISTURE TRAILING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...SOME SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR LATER MODEL RUNS FOR BETTER FOCUS ON THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A DRY PERIOD IS STILL IN THE CARDS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK ENCOMPASSING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE SNOW SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 44 55 52 / 70 70 80 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 45 40 54 51 / 50 40 80 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 47 39 54 50 / 40 40 80 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 46 34 52 49 / 30 20 70 70
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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