Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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610 FXUS64 KMRX 271917 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 317 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017 .SHORT TERM (Tonight and Friday)...
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Behind the cold front this evening, we will continue to see clearing skies from west to east as dry air filters in. The combination of dry air aloft, light winds, and recent rainfall will result in the potential for patchy fog late tonight and early Friday morning. Ridging begins to build back in on Friday with a southerly flow and temperatures about 10 degrees warmer than Thursday. At the surface, a warm front will also move north across the area with weak isentropic lift leading to some mid-level clouds on Friday afternoon. .LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)... High pressure will maintain control through much of the weekend, resulting in a summer- like pattern with very warm temperatures. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid to upper 80s, potentially breaking some records. For reference, record highs for Saturday are 88 at TYS and CHA, and 86 for TRI. Despite balmy surface dewpoints in the mid 60s, a capping inversion will likely suppress most afternoon convection outside the mountains. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on Sunday as the high begins to lose its grip on the area, but should again be well into the 80s at most locations. A strong low pressure system will track northwest of the forecast area Sunday/Sunday night, bringing a chance for some thunderstorms for our area Sunday night into Monday as the associated cold front pushes through. Frontal passage timing should limit instability and does not appear favorable for a large severe threat. However, a marginal wind threat appears possible with a low level jet overhead maxing out around 65kts. The frontal passage on Monday will bring temperatures back into the 70s for the first half of the workweek. Upper level flow becomes more zonal as well, with a fast moving weak shortwave bringing a brief chance of showers to the far northern part of the forecast area on Tuesday night/Wednesday. Another trough will approach the area Wednesday into Thursday, bringing the next chance for widespread precipitation to the region.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 57 85 66 87 / 10 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 84 65 88 / 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 55 87 66 88 / 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 87 59 87 / 20 10 10 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ JB/EMH

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