Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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210 FXUS64 KMRX 102017 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 317 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
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LIGHT SNOW IS BEING REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN MO AND IA IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND CHANNELED VORT MAX. THE MODELS SHOW THIS JET PUSHING INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING...AND PRODUCE SOME LIGHT QPF WITH IT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED BUT WITH TEMPERATURES SO COLD...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT. LESS THAN ONE INCH ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE OTHER ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE -5 TO -15 RANGE IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK AND WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. EARLY MORNING CLOUDS SHOULD BE ERODING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET MOVE EAST...AND WITH PARTIAL AFTERNOON SUN...HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TN VALLEY WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NORTHERN AREAS WITH GREATER SNOW COVER SHOULD STAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT FOR DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS. A SHORT WAVE RIDING ALONG THE UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE MRX CWA ON FRIDAY. THE ADDED MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL PUSH IN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN SOME SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES MAY CREATE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO. BRIEF...WEAK RIDGING ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A MINOR WARM UP AND A DRY DAY. MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCE POOR AS WELL. CURRENT GFS FASTER...A BIT DRIER AND COLDER THAN THE ECMWF. IF THE GFS SCENARIO IS CORRECT...WILL SEE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO BRING IN BRIEF SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR MUCH GREATER MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP MOVING THROUGH AS RAIN THEN TRANSITIONING INTO A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIP BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW MONDAY EVENING. EITHER SCENARIO SHOULD PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL BUT THE CONFIDENCE VERY LOW ON DETAILS. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR AND A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND MODERATING CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 25 44 27 50 / 30 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 23 38 23 44 / 30 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 22 39 22 43 / 30 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 15 32 17 38 / 20 10 0 40
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE- CLAY. TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI. WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE- SULLIVAN-WASHINGTON TN. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEE- RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. && $$ DGS/MJB

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