Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 281848 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 248 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SHORT TERM... BETTER COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. MORE CAPE AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TODAY, BUT AGAIN, VERY LITTLE SHEAR WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR INDIVIDUAL STORMS TO SURVIVE FOR LONGER THAN AN HOUR OR SO. IF A STORM IS ABLE TO STICK TOGETHER FOR A WHILE, THEN A VERY ISOLATED BRIEF WIND GUST UNDERNEATH IT COULD BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW THE BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE PLATEAU AND IS DRIFTING TO THE EAST ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE. FOG IS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT WITH THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE PATCHY IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN THIS EVENING. WE SET UP FOR A SIMILAR STORY TOMORROW, BUT THIS TIME I BELIEVE THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH NEAR THE TENNESSEE/VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS INCREASE A BIT TOMORROW, THIS COMBINED WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TRIPLE DIGITS IN SOME PLACES. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NM/W TX WILL RETROGRADE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN A WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY. AS SUCH...WILL HOLD ON TO A MENTION OF CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY COINCIDING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING DRY BY EARLY FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...HEAT INDEX VALUES ON THURSDAY WILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY. LOOK FOR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER HEAT INDICES AFTER THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 95 75 92 / 20 20 20 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 92 73 89 / 20 30 20 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 73 92 73 90 / 20 30 20 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 70 89 69 86 / 30 40 30 50 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ ABM/AC

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