Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 012015 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 315 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)... A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASSIONAL RAIN WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN AN AREA OF POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS ZONAL...SO WITHOUT DEEP FORCING THE PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT. THE AXIS OF RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...SHIFTING TOWARD SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY MONDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD SOME MENTION OF FROZEN PRECIP IN SW VA...BUT THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR AS MIDLEVEL DRYING BEGINS BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES DROP LOW ENOUGH AT THE SURFACE FOR ANY FZRA OR SLEET. TEMPERATUERS ON MONDAY ARE TRICKY TO FORECAST AS THE NORTHERN AREAS WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE MOS BLEND. ACROSS THE SOUTH...WILL GO WITH A SLOW FRONTAL PROGRESSION AND KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE. HOWEVER MONDAY NIGHT THE WEATHER WILL START OUT QUIET AS A COOL DRY AIR MASS WILL BE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP NORTHERN AREAS PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR EARLY BUT CLOUDS LINGER EXTREME SOUTH WITH POSSIBLE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA AND UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL START A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION SPREADING CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT EARLY THEN RISE LATER IN THE NIGHT AS THIS BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH. FOLLOWED THE DRIER MAV POPS AND KEPT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. TUESDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 50S. RAINFALL AMOUNTS INCREASE TO ABOUT ONE THIRD TO ONE HALF INCH. THE BEST LIFT AND DYNAMICS HOLDS OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. WINDS MAY GUST TO OVER 40 MPH IN THE MOUNTAINS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES COULD FALL. SNOW MELT HAS CONTINUED TODAY AND AMOUNTS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAS DECREASED DRAMATICALLY. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY BECAUSE OF A GREATER SNOWPACK OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA BUT SUBSTANTIAL MELTING WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S SO NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH. INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW BUT WITH THE STRONG UPPER ATMOSPHERE DYNAMICS THERE STILL IS A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL ENHANCE LIFT AND CAUSE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE MUCH COLDER EARLY THURSDAY...BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE AND AS LOW AS UPPER TEENS NORTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL STAY MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT AND REACH THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN A FEW COLDER SPOTS. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 42 47 42 59 / 70 70 50 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 40 48 39 56 / 80 70 30 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 39 48 38 56 / 80 60 40 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 38 47 34 54 / 80 40 20 70 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/TD

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