Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 110705 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 305 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL NE FLOW...WITH A DRY NW FLOW THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE TN VALLEY LOOK PRETTY STABLE TODAY...SO MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NC AND THE SMOKIES...AS DEPICTED BY THE RAP AND HRRR. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THOSE AREAS. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z. WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES TODAY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TOO WARM. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. ONLY FORCING FOR CONVECTION WITH BE OROGRAPHIC..SO WILL HAVE POPS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF STORMS FOR MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY AND DECENT INSTABILITY...I AM CONCERNED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. WILL CALL FOR HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. AS TIMING OF FROPA AND POTENTIAL OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH BECOMES MORE CLEAR...CATEGORICAL POPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS SPILLS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN GFS MEX HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 69 93 70 / 10 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 67 91 69 / 10 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 88 66 91 68 / 10 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 63 88 64 / 10 10 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/DH

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