Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 030730 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 330 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE AREA TODAY AS A MIDLEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DEEPENS SLIGHTLY AND A COLD FRONT IN THAT AREA PUSHES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR THIS FRONT WILL PASS NORTH OF OUR AREA...BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN KY. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER IT WILL BE MAINTAINED ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO REACH OUR AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH ON MAINTAINING THE STORMS...AND THERE WILL BE SOME SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER JET STREAK ACROSS E KY AND WV. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING A BIT TODAY COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...AND HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH TO MID 90S SOUTH. .LONG TERM (TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)... ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS, MAINLY IN FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WILL EXIST TOMORROW. MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT. FRONT WILL NOT REALLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES MUCH, BUT WILL HELP BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WHEREVER THE FRONT DECIDES TO HOLD UP WILL HAVE AN INCREASED CHANCE TO SEE STRONGER STORMS ON TUESDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONGER STORMS IS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS NEAR THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, WITH THE BIGGEST THREAT BEING STRONG WINDS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COMES TO THE AREA STARTING WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OVER THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN EXIST ON OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHEN A UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH BRINGING THE BEST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK, AND HOPEFULLY LATER MODEL RUNS WILL ALLOW US TO GET A BETTER IDEA OF START/END TIMES FOR STORMS. AFTER THE MAIN BULK OF PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT, WE DRY OUT JUST A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 94 69 96 73 / 0 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 92 67 90 70 / 0 10 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 92 69 92 68 / 0 10 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 90 64 87 65 / 0 30 20 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/ABM

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.