Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 231911 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 312 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. VERY DRY AIR HAS MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE TN AND SW VA. GOOD COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR EARLY TONIGHT. SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION APPEAR TOO BRIEF TO MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS RIDING BETWEEN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND TROUGH TO THE NE WILL STREAM ACROSS SW VA AND NE TN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALSO HINDER FROST DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION FROM 06-15Z ON FRIDAY...BEFORE RAPIDLY CLEARING THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND RESULT IN A NICE WARM-UP...ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. A FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN REACH THE MID 80S BY SUNDAY. A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS COME NICELY IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE MOISTURE AND SOME INSTABILITY IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING /COMBINED WITH SOME FAVORABLE SHEAR/...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SQUALL LINE /WITH SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF IT/ MAY DEVELOP WELL TO THE WEST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY. AS THESE STORMS MOVE EAST INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE THEY MAY CONGEAL INTO MORE OF A LINE OF STORMS...POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE PLATEAU AND FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS WINDS APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A LOT WILL HINGE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE STORMS AND HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO KICK OFF MAY...WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 45 76 60 78 / 0 10 70 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 75 57 75 / 0 0 70 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 42 75 57 76 / 0 10 70 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 36 74 50 72 / 0 0 70 50
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SON/AMP

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