Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 300816 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 416 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
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AN ACTIVE COUPLE DAYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTS EAST FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY TO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. A SERIES JET STREAKS WILL LIFT OUT OF THE TROUGH TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY ENHANCING THE LIFT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THESE UPPER JETS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER JET THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH 850MB WINDS OF 30KTS...WHICH WILL ALSO PRODUCE ISENTROPIC LIFT. FOR TODAY...MAIN FEATURE WILL BE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ENHANCE BOTH LOW-LEVEL FORCING AND SHEAR WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INCREASING. CONCERNED FOR POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS THAT ARE ENHANCED ALOFT THIS BOUNDARY. THE PLATEAU AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY IS THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SPC HAS PLACED THE AREA UNDER MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. FOR SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA. BEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 75. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ENDING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS. .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)... COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY MORNING...BUT MODELS SHOW LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY MONDAY MORNING NORTH BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVING NE FROM MS ALONG FRONT TO OVERRUN THE FORECAST AREA BY EITHER LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND THEN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES CONTINUES EARLY WEEK AND ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA TO SHIFT SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST MONDAY JUST BEHIND FRONT IN THE 70S THEN DROP TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GFS IS STILL BRINGING UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTH TOWARD FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE SOUTHERN CLOSED LOW EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THEN DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW AND MOVING IT UP THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IN EITHER CASE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS NE HALF OF THE AREA. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH MOUNTAIN AREAS ONLY IN THE 50S.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 63 80 63 / 60 70 60 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 80 63 81 63 / 60 70 60 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 79 63 81 62 / 60 80 60 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 60 79 58 / 60 70 70 60
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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