Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 122028 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 328 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SNOW DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC FORCING TODAY WILL BE EXITING THE AREA...BUT ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. 925-850MB FLOW TRAJECTORIES SHOW A CONNECTION TO LAKE MICHIGAN...AND THE NAM SHOWS LOW LEVEL CAPE VALUES OF 100-150 J/KG THAT WILL HELP GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN SECTIONS. AN UPSLOPE 25-30 KT WIND WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE TN MTNS AND SW VA...SO THE ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THOSE AREAS. WILL END THE ADVISORY WITH THE NEW FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE PLATEAU AND TN VALLEY AREAS. WILL HOIST A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE MTNS AND FOR WISE...RUSSELL...AND WASHINGTON VA AS WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE FROM MIDNIGHT TO NOON TOMORROW. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 20S NORTH/CENTRAL TO LOWER/MID 30S SOUTH. LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... WINTER CONTINUES IN FULL FORCE SATURDAY NIGHT AS COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SATURDAY EVENING AND LIGHT SNOW COVER STILL POSSIBLE WILL ALLOW OPTIMAL COOLING. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH MID WEEK AND ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SPEEDING THIS SYSTEM UP A FEW HOURS SO INCREASED POPS SUNDAY IN THE AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE MS VALLEY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE COMING IN ON BACK SIDE OF ARCTIC HIGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING FROM A COLD MORNING BUT TRAPPED COLD AIR SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY ONLY EXPECTING A FEW TENTHS ACCUMULATION. MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA SHOULD REACH THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH THE WARM AIR MOVING IN BUT ENOUGH WARM AIR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET TO FALL IN SUB FREEZING AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHERN AREAS WHERE THERE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE PREVALENT IN WARMER AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. ON MONDAY THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MORNING BUT SHIFT FARTHER NORTHEAST AND TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS WITH RAIN REPLACING WINTER PRECIPITATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. PREFER THE MUCH COLDER MAX TEMPERATURES OF THE GFS FOR HIGHS MONDAY MOSTLY MID 30S TO NEAR 40. ICING FROM ABOUT 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PLATEAU...AND EASTERN TN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COLD AIR BECOMES TRAPPED. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE COUNTIES AS WELL AS SW VIRGINIA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE IS COLDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WARMS UP LATER MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND COLDER AIR WILL GRADUALLY BE PULLED SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO A WET SNOW LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BY AFTERNOON TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING TO THE 40S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW WILL CHANGE TO RAIN EXCEPT AT HIGHER MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS WHICH SHOULD GET MORE MEASURABLE WET SNOW. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS KEEPS THE THREAT FOR SNOW SHOWERS AT NIGHT AND RAIN DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY SHIFTS EAST WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING IN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER DURING THE DAY WITH SUN RETURNING. HIGHS THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH...THEN 50S TO LOWER 60S FRIDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 23 35 20 41 / 0 0 0 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 20 27 15 36 / 10 0 0 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 19 29 15 37 / 10 0 0 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 17 22 9 31 / 40 20 0 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE. TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-UNICOI. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON- SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE- SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL- SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST SATURDAY FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-WISE.
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&& $$ DGS/TD

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