Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 161933 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 227 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
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LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER ALMOST CONSTANT CLOUD COVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THAT COULD GET KICKED UP BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY FOR SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE TN VALLEY EARLY IN THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO LAYER MOISTURE AND PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON FRIDAY WITH A MILD WARM UP. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO INVADE LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY ON SATURDAY. A SW TO NE SPEED MAX WILL RUN THROUGH THE SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A THICKENING CLOUD DECK AND THE ONSET OF RAIN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP SE OF THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON SATURDAY. A SECONDARY UPPER IMPULSE WILL SWING INTO THE UPPER TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. KEEPING THE RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FREEZING LEVELS PROGGED TO HOLD UP WELL UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS MOVING IN FROM THE NW. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL LIKELY CHANCE TO SNOW EARLY SUNDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND ELEVATED AREA. UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED EAST AND MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE TAPERING OFF WITH SUNDAY TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. AN ELONGATED JET STREAK FROM THE PAC NW WILL DIVE INTO THE TN VALLEY ON TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 36 49 33 49 / 0 0 30 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 35 46 31 46 / 10 0 20 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 35 46 31 45 / 10 0 20 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 34 43 28 44 / 20 0 0 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ JW/SON

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