Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 270701 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 301 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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WILL BE IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. A WEAKENING...BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THIS LINE IS MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. HOWEVER...ANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE...THOUGH CAPE IS LIMITED AND UPPER SUPPORT IS WEAK. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE PRODUCING STRONG WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS OK AT BEST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH AND WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST BY LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SOME DRYING. WILL KEEP MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO FOR THURSDAY. NAM IS AN OUTLIER IN SHOWING VERY LITTLE DRYING AND A RETURN OF PRECIP BY FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF SUPPORT FROM OTHER MODELS/ENSEMBLES WILL GO DRY FRIDAY. BY THE WEEKEND MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AFFECTING THE REGION. WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE WEAK COLD FRONT MAY NOT HAVE CLEARED THE AREA. FORECAST FOR TUESDAY RATHER UNCERTAIN AS IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH DRYING WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT. FOR NOW WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 66 86 59 / 30 40 30 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 63 84 59 / 40 50 40 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 82 63 84 58 / 40 60 40 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 59 82 54 / 50 60 50 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MJB/LW

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