Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 151935 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 335 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
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SHORTWAVE CROSSING TN NOW...WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF THE STATE. WEAK INSTABILITY IS BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL LIKELY FORM IN THESE AREAS AS WELL. WILL HAVE SOME POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH THREAT OF ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF MOST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME MINIMAL POPS IN FOR TUESDAY...DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK LIFT ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE MIN TONIGHT WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE IN THE AREA...RELATIVELY LOW CEILINGS...AND RELATIVELY HIGH SURFACE DEW POINTS. WILL GO WARMER THAN GFS MOS FOR MINS TONIGHT. FRONT WILL WASH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING...WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTENSIFIES. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN COAST WILL CAUSE MOISTURE AND LIFTING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR THIS, HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. NEXT BIG WEATHER ITEM TO AFFECT THE AREA IS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING IN TO MONDAY. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR NOW...BUT STILL EARLY IN THE GAME TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE WITH THE TIMING. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...AS WILL TEMPERATURES...THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 85 63 79 / 20 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 81 59 76 / 20 20 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 79 58 77 / 10 20 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 79 53 75 / 20 20 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ GM/JW

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