Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 100701 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 301 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... A WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EASE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING...AND HAS ALLOWED FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK AND THEN BRIEFLY DISSIPATE AS THE FRONT MIXES OUT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...WITH THIS REMNANT BOUNDARY IN PLACE SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG TN/NC MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST VA THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND DAYTIME HEATING...BUT SOME AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION...CLOUDS AND STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LESS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE HEATING AND HIGHS RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE MORE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CLEARING WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL ALLOW LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN MANY AREAS...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR BODIES OF WATER. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPPER HEIGHTS RISING EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...SO KEEPING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY FOR MOST AREAS. SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION LOOKS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS WESTWARD WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO EASTERN CANADA. HOWEVER...POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT NOTED BY MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT ALSO APPROACHING. LONG RANGE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING THESE FEATURES...WHICH COULD LEAD TO HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON EITHER MONDAY OR TUESDAY. MOS TRENDING A BIT HIGHER ON TUESDAY POPS...SO NUDGED RAIN CHANCES UP BY AROUND 10 PERCENT. A LITTLE DRIER AND COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR TEMPS...GFSX AND ECMX MOS TEMPS SIMILAR THROUGH THE LONG TE && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 88 67 90 68 / 30 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 86 66 88 67 / 30 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 86 66 88 67 / 20 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 62 86 63 / 30 10 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AMP/TG

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