Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 021840 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 240 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
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A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS PROMOTED ANOTHER VERY WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MOST SPOTS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT FOR THE MOST PART DRY CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING EVERYWHERE. SOME DENSE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXPAND/LINGER OF THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. THESE CLOUDS MAY HELP TO KEEP LOWS UP A FEW DEGREES IN THESE AREAS...BUT IN GENERAL A MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AS READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL BE COMMON. FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES...GIVING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE TERRAIN. HOWEVER...A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...WITH HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NOT TOO MUCH ACTION FOR FRIDAY IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH JUST A LITTLE TOO MUCH RIDGING AND LIMITED MOISTURE. STILL LOOKS LIKE SLIGHT OR SMALL CHANCES IN PLACE OVER THE MAJOR TERRAIN FEATURES. HOWEVER...MODELS HINT AT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHICH SHOWS UP AS A WEAK WAVE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE EASTERN LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE BACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH. THUS WE WILL BE LOOKING AT PROBABILITIES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE ON SATURDAY AND ABOUT 30 TO 40 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. FOR THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK...HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE PROBABILITIES FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DROP BACK TO THE SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 93 70 91 / 0 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 91 68 89 / 0 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 70 91 67 88 / 0 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 89 64 86 / 10 20 10 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AMP/TH

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