Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 251902 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 302 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017 .SHORT TERM (Tonight and Tuesday)...
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During this period, we will be under a weak upper level ridge, between tropical system Maria and the fading upper low along the central Gulf Coast. We will also be under a low level ridge, with a light breeze through the period, generally having a dry northerly component. With this pattern, the forecast should not be too far away from a persistence forecast. Will not include a mention of fog tonight in the forecast--there could be some localized fog, but even much of that will not get that thick, so not planning to mention it. Guidance temps look good overall, and look to be close to persistence as well. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)...Models in decent agreement overall, and forecast confidence is a bit above average for this time of year. Persistent ridge of high pressure breaks down early continues over the area early, but then breaks down allowing a cold front to push through Thursday. Moisture very limited and not much forcing with this front, so will go dry for now. Cooler and drier air will push in behind the front, and the mid/upper level ridge will be building once again for the latter part of the period. No precipitation forecast for the extended period at this time, with a very warm start followed by more seasonable temperatures.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 63 88 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 87 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ GM/LW

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