Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 311831 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 231 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
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A INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT THE 850-700 LEVEL WILL BE OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS TONIGHT. THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO BLOSSOM OVER WESTERN NC TONIGHT...AND SPREAD NORTH INTO NE TN AND SW VA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMOROW MORNING. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THIS AREA AFTER 06Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 18Z. FRI. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS SHOULD KEEP HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS TO OUR EAST. POPS DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LIFT EXITS THE AREA...BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE A PRETTY MOIST COLUMN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE TO OUR WEST. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH LIGHT QPF. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPS WILL BE GRADUALLY CREEPING UPWARDS DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH. SO EXPECT SCATTERED PRECIP THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...DECREASING DOWN TO ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. LATE IN THE PERIOD /THURSDAY/ WE MAY BE SEEING THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST...SO HAVE REINTRODUCED SCATTERED COVERAGE OF PRECIP UNTIL THE TIMING BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 84 68 85 / 30 40 40 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 80 66 83 / 40 50 30 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 65 82 66 84 / 30 40 30 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 77 61 81 / 60 70 40 40
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/GC

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