Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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430 FXUS64 KMRX 250742 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 342 AM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
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Main system of interest is a slow moving upper trough across the southern plains. This system will move northeast into the Ohio Valley by Sunday. The trough axis will move into the Tennessee Valley late today and tonight. Associated upper jet will place the region under the favored right entrance region of the jet with broad divergence. The upward forcing will move into the southern Plateau/southeast Tennessee late this afternoon, then slowly move across the rest of the area overnight. Enough instability to include thunderstorms for TYS and CHA areas. The upper jet forcing will also induce a low-level jet of 35-45kts. Later shifts may need to issue a wind advisory for the far eastern Tennessee Mountains tonight. Followed model temperature guidance closely for today and tonight. .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...Will stay in an active weather pattern through the extended as a series of frontal boundaries and short waves track through. We will begin the extended with a cold front across the region. We will see decent moisture in place with dew points increasing to the upper 50s and possible a few low 60s...strong daytime heating with highs climbing into the upper 60s and 70s and a 40 to 50 KTs 850 MB jet pushing through. This will all combine to provide a marginally unstable air mass and allow for a line of convection to develop and move in. A stray storm could become strong or potentially severe. The cold front will exit Sunday night but will be followed quickly with and other system moving in. A warm front will lift though the area Monday with the accompanying cold front tracking into the area on Tuesday for a continue chance of convection through the first part of the work week. A few showers may behind the system...but overall...the best chance at a dry period will be around the Wednesday time frame with weak ridging over the area. Model consistency lessens by the end of the period but the trend is to bring in the next system around Thursday or Friday.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 57 73 57 / 40 100 70 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 56 70 56 / 10 90 80 40 Oak Ridge, TN 74 55 71 56 / 10 90 80 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 52 68 53 / 10 40 80 40
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$

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