Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 211746 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 143 PM EDT Tue Mar 21 2017 .DISCUSSION...
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Main concern is convective complex moving across the southern half of the Tennessee Valley between 21-02Z this evening, mainly across CHA and TYS. Strong damaging winds and large hail will be possible at CHA. HRRR model shows confidence in an area of convection moving east southeast across the area late this afternoon/early evening. Strong 300 mb jet over the Ohio Valley will place east Tenessee under the favored Right entrance region of the jet. This forcing with increasing instability will produce strong thunderstorms. The dry air in the mid-levels combined with good hail CAPE will set the stage for damaging winds and large hail. Behind this system, convection will end by around 03z with VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites from 06Z to end of forecast.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 53 65 47 / 80 80 20 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 78 47 61 39 / 60 70 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 77 47 62 43 / 30 70 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 44 56 34 / 10 20 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$

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