Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 250716 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 316 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE CAROLINAS...WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING...WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY TONIGHT...BRINGING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAXES FOR TODAY...BUT REVEAL SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH MINS FOR TONIGHT. WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO WHERE DIFFERENCES ARE NOTED. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE INCREDIBLE QUASI-PERMANENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING THAT HAS SEEMINGLY TAKEN UP RESIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS (WHILE THE WESTERN U.S. SITS UNDER DROUGHT) IS EXPECTED TO BRING DOWN A THIRD ROUND OF UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR...JULY ALONE. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING MONDAY WILL SEPARATE A COUPLE OF HOT PRE- FRONTAL DAYS (SAT-SUN) FROM THE SEVERAL POST-FRONTAL DAYS OF TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (TUES-THURS). THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY WILL BRING THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK DURING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 65 92 71 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 87 62 90 70 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 87 63 90 69 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 85 59 89 66 / 0 0 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DMG/GC

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