Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 221606 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1100 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014 .DISCUSSION...
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FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATE PLANNED. SON SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE WARMER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL WEATHER IN GENERAL AS THE SOUTHERLY WINDS DON`T INCREASE UNTIL TOWARD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MOS GUIDANCE WAS A COUPLE OF DEGREES TOO COOL ON FRIDAY`S MAX TEMPS...BUT THE WARMER GFS MOS MAXES DO LOOK REASONABLE FOR TODAY. I CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE SIMILAR NAM/GFS MOS MINS FOR TONIGHT. LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR POSSIBLE MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD STAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH STRONG SE FLOW. RAINFALL WILL BEGIN OVER SOUTHEAST SECTIONS SUNDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY LATE IN THE DAY. STEADY RAIN TO END AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY WITH WARM TEMPERATURES. INSTABILITY FAIRLY LOW WITH WARM FRONT BUT ENOUGH TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY. BEHIND COLD FRONT MONDAY TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES SUNNY TUESDAY WITH MUCH COOLER HIGHS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE WRAPPED AROUND IT WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST. ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST. CLOUDS AND SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL AFFECT AGAIN MAINLY NORTHERN TN AND SW VA. FRIDAY COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO CLEAR SKIES AS NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 42 60 52 / 10 60 90 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 40 59 50 / 10 30 90 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 56 39 58 51 / 10 40 90 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 34 57 45 / 10 10 90 70
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK- JOHNSON-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. VA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR RUSSELL-WASHINGTON.
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&& $$ TG/TD

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