Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 280730 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...QUITE A MUGGY EARLY MORNING WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S SO FAR. THAT WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURE LOOKS TO BE TO OUR NORTH...ALTHOUGH APPEARS THAT A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY HAVE SETTLED ACROSS THE NRN PLATEAU AND CENTRAL VALLEY COUNTIES. SOME PERSISTENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LINGERED OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS. NOT SURE IF ANY OF THE MODELS HAVE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PEGGED FOR LATER TODAY...BUT THE PREVIOUS POP GRIDS LOOKED REASONABLE. NUDGED POPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE PRE 12Z GRIDS AND OPTED FOR AREAL COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT FAR WRN COUNTIES. FOR TEMPS...07Z TEMPS SO MILD THAT I WAS HESITANT TO UNDERCUT THE GFS MOS MAXES BY VERY MUCH. PROBABLY SEE MAXES TODAY VERY CLOSE TO THOSE ON MONDAY. CHOSE CLOSE TO THE MOS BLEND FOR MINS TONIGHT... EXCEPT ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER IN A FEW SPOTS SUCH AS MURPHY NC. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NOT TOO MUCH GOING ON IN THE LONG TERM. RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL THUS ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. FLATTENING OF RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THAT SWINGS A WEAK FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY...GIVING US OUR BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN WITH WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH POPS ARE ONLY HIGH END CHANCE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE HEAT INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S CENTRAL VALLEY AND UPPER 9OS NEAR 100 ON BOTH WEDNESDAY. AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 OR GREATER BUT DO REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED WHILE DOING ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO EASTERN U.S. BEING IN A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN. THIS DRIER AIR WILL KEEP US MOSTLY DRY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN EACH DAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 95 74 93 75 / 30 20 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 92 73 90 73 / 30 20 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 91 73 91 74 / 30 20 40 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 69 87 70 / 40 30 40 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG/SR

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