Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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144 FXUS64 KMRX 211537 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1037 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 .DISCUSSION...
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Unseasonably warm and humid conditions today with record high temperatures forecast again. A cold front currently stretches from near Pittsburg to the south and east to near Nashville southward to just inland along the Texas coast. The temperature gradient along this boundary is rather impressive with 70s currently in Middle TN and 40s in West TN. Looking at the national radar, most of the precipitation is post-frontal. The front is slowing its progress to the southeast as the mid and upper flow become parallel to the boundary. The location of the 300 mb jet across the Western Great Lakes and into Canada would suggest the best forcing is still back to the west closer to the Mid- Mississippi River Valley. Models do indicate a weak shortwave trough moving through the Mid-Mississippi and Tennessee River Valleys later this afternoon and this could lead to a slight increase in precipitation coverage across the forecast area. However, the best lift will still be to the west and have best chances across the Northern Plateau. With dewpoints in the 60s, there will be some instability and cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon with any precipitation. The front will continue to slow today and expect it will remain just to the north and west of the forecast area.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 62 78 59 / 30 50 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 60 76 59 / 40 40 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 76 60 74 59 / 50 60 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 56 73 54 / 40 30 50 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ MA

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