Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 221357 AAB AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Morristown TN 957 AM EDT Sat Apr 22 2017 .DISCUSSION... Broad area of showers and weak thunderstorms continue to march into the Cumberland Plateau and eventually into portions of the central and southern Valley. This activity should continue to wane over the next few hours as the associated 850 mb LLJ weakens as it lifts north into KY between 15-18z. Still, with a stationary boundary in place over the northern half of the area and a deep warm cloud layer, the potential for localized flooding/flash flooding is possible along the northern Cumberland Plateau and Mtns area of SE KY/SW VA through 17-18z. As this activity fades by early afternoon, some partial clearing may allow the boundary layer to once again destabilize -- particularly across areas along and south of I-40. As a result, some strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and evening, with the best window being 21-01z. Uncertainty exists with just how unstable the environment can get, but with better shear profiles, and progged MLCAPE values between 500-1500 j/kg, some organized convection with damaging winds and marginally severe hail is possible. Folks with outdoor plans this afternoon should pay close attention to the weather given the potential for lightning and locally heavy rainfall with this activity as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 81 57 64 52 / 90 90 80 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 56 60 50 / 80 90 90 40 Oak Ridge, TN 75 56 61 51 / 90 90 80 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 74 53 58 48 / 90 90 100 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains- East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins- Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-NW Blount-North Sevier-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke- Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN- Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter- Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union- Washington TN-West Polk. VA...Flash Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Sunday afternoon for Lee-Russell-Scott-Washington-Wise. && $$ AMP

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