Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 301924 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 324 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Tonight and Tuesday)... Widely scattered showers and storms have developed across extreme northern TN as temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s to near 90. Convection may be forming along old frontal boundary. More isolated storms were also firing across the northern and southern plateau...southern valley and North Carolina mountains. some brief heavy rains...small hail and gusty winds to about 30 mph are possible next few hours before storms end around 00-01Z tonight. Added slightly higher pops across central and southern areas through 00Z with activity after that only higher elevations east. Tonight lows should fall back into the upper 50s around Tri-Cities where air mass is slightly drier to mostly mid 60s elsewhere with patchy fog where rain fell. Tuesday expecting less convection to develop...mainly close to and in the eastern TN and NC mountains. Highs similar to today mid 80s to lower 90s around CHA. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)... A ridge of high pressure Tuesday night will produce a mostly dry conditions. For Wednesday...Ridging remains...but plenty of instability to produce convection over the terrain features...then spread into the valley late in the day. An upper trough moving across the northern Plains and northern Great Lakes will pull a frontal boundary southward into Kentucky for Thursday...then over the area for Friday. Air-mass will be fairly unstable with MLCAPES of 1000-1500 J/KG. Anticipate fairly decent coverage of storms over the region for both Thursday and Friday. Little in the way of upper dynamics...but enough instability and favorable thermodynamics to warrant potential of strong storms in the HWO. Main concern will be marginal severe hail as Hail CAPES are favorable. For Saturday and especially Sunday...an upper trough will dig southward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Strong upper dynamics and potentially favorable thermodynamics to warrant another mentioning of strong to possible severe storms. Upper trough swings east of the area for Monday with drier and cooler conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 91 67 91 / 10 10 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 88 66 87 / 10 10 10 30 Oak Ridge, TN 64 88 66 87 / 10 10 10 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 86 62 85 / 10 10 20 50
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ TD/DH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.