Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 310719 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 319 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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AN UPPER JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL HELP PULL SURFACE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. AS SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LIFTS NORTHEAST...EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN/NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE LIFT IS BEST. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT DIFFER SOME ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND RESULTING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AN SATURDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITHIN THE LONG WAVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PULL SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EACH OF THESE DAYS. THE LONG WAVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MOUNTAINS. AS FOR TEMPS... WILL TREND COOLER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 64 81 65 / 20 40 50 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 64 80 64 / 20 50 50 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 81 62 80 64 / 10 40 50 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 61 78 61 / 20 60 60 50
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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