Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 280758 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 255 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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A STRAY POCKET OF FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH WV MAY REACH INTO FAR NORTHERN AREAS AND POSSIBLY THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR A QUITE SHORT TERM WITH CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND TIMING ISSUES FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY/EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL GO NO HIGHER THAN HIGH CHANCE POPS THURSDAY. SETUP DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE COLD ADVECTION THU NIGHT...BUT GOOD ENOUGH TO CARRY LIKELY POPS IN THE USUAL HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE ELSEWHERE. COULD BE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS. WILL MENTION IN HWO. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY FRIDAY...THEN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE HAD CONSISTENCY ISSUES...BUT TREND SEEMS TO INDICATE MUCH OF THE PRECIP ON THE FRONT END OF THIS WILL BE RAIN...WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AS THE COLD AIR PUSHES IN ON THE BACK SIDE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY. LOOKS DRY TUESDAY FOR NOW.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 34 55 34 / 10 10 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 29 52 32 / 10 10 30 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 42 29 50 32 / 10 10 30 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 39 23 50 30 / 10 10 40 50
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MJB/LW

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