Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 181850 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 250 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
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CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE WESTERN TN RIVER VALLEY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD...BUT ITS ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF FOG TO MAINLY AROUND THE WATERWAYS...AND WILL THUS MENTION PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY CREATE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ON FRIDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND POSSIBLY OVER NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA AS WELL. THUS...WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THESE AREAS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MAXES THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SHOW SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH MINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO WITH MINS...AND WILL TREND COOLER THAN BOTH WITH MAXES (WHICH HAS BEEN THE TREND LATELY). .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MAIN SYSTEM AND ONLY SYSTEM OF CONCERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDING IN EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS TRENDING A BIT FASTER WITH THE SYSTEM AND WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS SUNDAY EVENING. FRONT HAS MINIMAL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED...SO WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 30. BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SHOULD DOMINATE AREA WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 83 63 83 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 57 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 81 61 81 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 78 57 78 / 0 20 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DMG/MJB

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