Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 140744 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 344 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
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A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. MAIN DYNAMICS WITH UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EASTERN AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AGAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 06-12Z TONIGHT WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FOR WEDNESDAY. VERTICAL PROFILE WILL SUPPORT THE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HIGHEST PEAKS COULD SEE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MORNING...THEN DROP DURING THE DAY. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY... STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE AS BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS PUSH COOLER AND DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A HARD AND POTENTIALLY KILLING FREEZE ACROSS A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA /PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY WHERE READINGS IN THE 23 TO 28 DEGREE RANGE MAY BE COMMON/. ADDITIONALLY...NEARLY ALL OF OF THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WILL DROP TO AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS THERE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S. GIVEN THE HIGH IMPACT AN EVENT LIKE THIS WILL HAVE TO CROPS AND PLANTS...THOSE WITH AGRICURTUAL INTERESTS SHOULD ESPECIALLY TAKE MEASURES TO PROTECT ALL TENDER VEGETATION. AFTER A COOL DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AN ADDTIONAL LIGHT FREEZE AND FROST SEEMS PROBABLE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN /AND POSSIBLY EVEN THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES/. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGHS RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS WELL...BRINGING A DECENT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HOWEVER...RIDGING WILL QUICKLY RETURN FOR SATURDAY...ALONG WITH CLEARER CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 74 45 51 31 / 90 100 60 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 75 46 49 28 / 80 100 80 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 74 44 48 28 / 80 100 70 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 75 51 52 25 / 60 100 90 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL- CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN- HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON- MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE- RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN- UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.
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&& $$

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