Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 211904 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 304 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO MOISTEN THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A LOBE OF DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS APPROACH 2 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY ELEVATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT A LOT OF LIFT OR FOCUS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS MOISTURE. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL...JUST LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING IN SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE DOWNPOURS. THIS MOISTURE SHOULD MUTE THE OVERALL WARMING TUESDAY AS WELL...WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TUESDAY. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR LIFT REMAINS WEAK TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...SO SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN. BETTER LIFT COMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER JET APPROACH FROM THE NW. THIS TIMING IS SIMILAR IN THE NAM AND GFS...AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS OF BOTH MODELS. WILL MOVE LIKELY POPS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN LOWER TO CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE TROUGH EXITS. THE SURFACE FRONT IS DELAYED BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BRING AND END TO POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND BELOW GFS MOS GUIDANCE CONSIDERING CLOUD COVER AND EXPECTED PRECIP. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING SUNNY SKIES FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE AS THE AIR MASS ORIGINATES FROM CNTRL CANADA AND THE MID/UPPER TROUGH IS QUITE DEEP TO OUR EAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME DISTURBANCES COMING OUR WAY IN THE NW FLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS THOSE DAYS...THOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE PRECIP DEPICTIONS OF THE GEFS MEMBERS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 83 71 88 / 30 40 30 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 83 69 86 / 30 50 20 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 69 84 69 86 / 20 40 20 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 84 66 85 / 20 50 20 50
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ GM/DGS

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