Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 200750 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 350 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and Tonight)... Clear skies, light winds and surface high pressure have lead to some patchy fog across the area this morning. Expect any ongoing fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise with mostly sunny skies forecast for today. Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicate a ridge extending from the Gulf Coast into the Northern Plains with drier along this axis. Upper level heights will continue to increase today as the ridge axis moves overhead. Temperatures will range from around 5-10 degrees above normal with 500 dm heights in the 588-590 dm range. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 70s across most valley locations. The ridge axis will pass to the east tonight with overnight temperatures around 5-10 degrees warmer than last night with forecast lows in the mid 40s to low 50s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)... Protective ridging holds on through most of the weekend keeping skies mostly sunny with little chance for rain. However, a relatively strong short wave trough will drive northeast out of the Lower Mississippi Valley across the Mid South generating showers and some thunderstorms over the Southern Appalachian Region later Sunday night into Monday night. There won`t be much of a break behind this feature as more short wave energy dives southeast out of the Northern Plains and Western Great Lakes for arrival in the forecast area on Tuesday, generating a decent chance for more showers through Tuesday night. Additionally, there will be a final, weaker upper level feature moving through the base of a deep long wave trough over the eastern states that will have just enough moisture for the possibility of some light rain on Wednesday. Drier air on the back side of this departing trough may allow for a dry Thursday at the tail end of the extended. The weekend will be pleasant with above normal warmth but temperatures will be gradually dropping back to normal early in the work week under a shield of rain producing clouds. And by Wednesday and Thursday readings will be several degrees below normal as chilly Canadian air spills southward into the Eastern U.S. $$
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 50 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 77 48 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 78 49 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 78 45 76 48 / 0 0 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ MA

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