Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 150822 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 422 AM EDT TUE APR 15 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...
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MAIN RAINS HAVE STAYED WELL SOUTH...SO WILL FOCUS MAINLY ON THE POST-FRONTAL TEMPERATURES AND WIND. UPGRADING TO FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT FOR ENTIRE AREA. CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT MAY ONLY GET TO 30-32 DEGREES WITH WIND BLOWING ACROSS CITY HEAT ISLAND...BUT OTHER PARTS OF THE SUBURBS WILL LIKELY GO DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S...SO THINK WARNING FOR EVEN SOUTHERN AREAS LOOKS GOOD. AS THE COLD AIR POURS INTO THE REGION...WIND CHILL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE IN THE 30S IN THE VALLEY AND IN THE 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. TIMING NOT VERY GOOD FOR SNOW...NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT AROUND BY THE TIME THE COLDER AIR HITS. WILL HAVE SOME FLURRIES MENTIONED IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...BUT NO ACCUMULATION INCLUDED. WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE PLATEAU AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTER. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER GOOD NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SHELTERED VALLEYS. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF NORTH CAROLINA. WILL ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A SERIES OF FAIRLY FAST MOVING SHORT-WAVE EJECTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE RIDGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEK WILL LIMIT NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN. THE LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS STAYING GENERALLY NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES OF RAIN IN LOW CHANCE VARIETY WITH BEST CHANCES NORTH AND MOUNTAINS NEXT AREA OF INTEREST WILL BE DEVELOPING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE EJECT EASTWARD. THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON EVOLUTION OF THIS WAVE WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE STRONGER. WILL INCLUDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT OVERALL MODELS ONLY DEPICT A FAIRLY WEAK WAVE FOR NOW.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 30 62 35 / 30 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 29 61 34 / 50 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 49 28 61 33 / 50 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 26 60 29 / 70 0 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK- HAWKINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN. FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS- EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS- JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE- NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN- SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER- SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION- WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON- SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE- UNICOI. WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTHWEST MONROE- RHEA-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-WEST POLK. VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. && $$

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