Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 271504 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1104 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016 .DISCUSSION...
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SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS NEARING THE MISS RIVER. WIND FIELDS WILL KIND OF LEVELS OFF OVERNIGHT AT ONLY MODERATE LEVELS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS OVERALL AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA. 850 MB WINDS WILL GET CLOSE TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON...AND GET TO 25-30 OVERNIGHT BUT THEN LEVEL OFF AND START VEERING AS THE UPPER TROUGH RIDES ACROSS TO OUR NORTH. INSTABILITY WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 1000 J/KG CAPE THIS AFTERNOON...A LITTLE HIGHER SOUTH AND WEST...AND A LITTLE LESS IN THE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVING HAIL MAINLY UP TO PENNY SIZE...AND ISOLATED STRONGEST STORMS UP TO QUARTER SIZE. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING WILL BE ON THE PLATEAU...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PLATEAU...AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST...SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS MORE AND MORE MOISTURE PUSH INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT. MADE VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE MAX TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON...MADE MORE SIGNIFICANT TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AS SOME LOCATIONS IN THE EAST WERE HEATING UP VERY QUICKLY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 65 86 59 / 30 70 30 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 64 84 59 / 40 70 40 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 83 63 84 58 / 50 70 40 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 60 82 54 / 50 60 50 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ GM

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