Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 240739 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 339 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN KY AND MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE MOVED INTO FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND WEAKENED. AREA RADARS ONLY SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS STILL SHOW ACTIVITY REDEVELOPING THIS MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER MIDDLE TN INTO EASTERN KY. KEPT CHANCE POPS FOR TODAY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER NE TN MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY OVERALL MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH BUT IN THUNDERSTORMS AND SLOW MOVING SHOWERS RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE AN INCH OR MORE. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IN A FEW SPOTS IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT TO END SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HIGHS REACHING ONLY UPPER 70S SW VA TO LOWER TO MID 80S TN AND SW NC THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT FOLLOWED CLOSE TO FORECAST GFS/NAM BLEND WITH UPPER 50S NE TN AND SW VA TO LOWER AND MID 60S FARTHER SOUTH LOWER ELEVATIONS. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FAIR WEATHER EXPECT FOR THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INT THE SOUTH. UPPER HIGH RIDGES INTO THE TN VALLEY FROM THE WEST. UPPER JET PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. WARMING TREND INTO SUNDAY. UPPER JET SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE AREA AND THROUGH THE SMOKIES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GOOD LIFT AND PRE FRONTAL INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT. LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND QPF ARE IN QUESTION WHILE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN THROUGH THE MID WEEK. MORNING LOWS WILL BECOME SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 86 66 88 66 / 40 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 64 86 65 / 50 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 83 63 86 63 / 40 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 58 85 58 / 50 10 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TD/SON

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