Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 261928 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 328 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE REGION BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED WITH DEW POINTS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 100 IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AREA AS TEMPERATURES CLIMBED TO THE MID 90S THERE AT MID AFTERNOON. A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WAS DYING AS IT MOVED INTO UPPER RIDGE OVER MIDDLE TN. THE UPPER RIDGE IS RETROGRADING TO THE WEST AND ALLOWING THE UPPER FLOW TO BRING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER THE MS VALLEY SOUTHEAST INTO TN TOWARD THE PLATEAU COUNTIES. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WAS ALSO TRYING TO FORM OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND JUST EAST OF THE CREST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE FORMING OVER THE SMOKY MOUNTAIN SUMMITS AND NORTHERN PLATEAU AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY. SOME SHOWERS HAD ALSO FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY/PLATEAU EARLIER BUT WERE NOW IN NW GA. A WEAK FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE EAST AND PLATEAU WITH A FEW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS BEFORE ENDING THIS EVENING. THEN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER. MONDAY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM A LITTLE EARLIER AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO KY AND TN. THE WEAK FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH AND LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTO TN MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS IN FORECAST MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH HIGHS STILL REACHING THE UPPER 80S NE TO LOWER AND MID 90S CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS...EVEN WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY CENTRAL AND NE. .LONG TERM...(TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...WE CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH TYPICAL SUMMER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. AT THIS POINT SEEMS LIKE GARDEN VARIETY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE LACK OF SHEAR/CAPE COMBINATION NEVER REALLY COMES TOGETHER TO GIVE MUCH OF A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY NEAR US WILL GET PUSHED BACK WEST, AND A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT, SO AM CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF, OR WITH THE FRONT. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, BUT WILL STALL NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. A FEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE FRONT AND HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO BRING ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 94 74 96 / 20 20 20 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 91 72 91 / 10 30 20 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 91 73 92 / 10 30 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 88 68 88 / 10 50 30 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TD/ABM

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