Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 221906 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 306 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2016 .SHORT TERM (This afternoon through Friday)...
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An upper trough over the Carolinas continues to pull cloud cover into parts of southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Will begin with partly to mostly cloudy there early this evening...then slowly become mostly clear/ partly cloudy by early Friday morning. Patchy fog is possible... mainly near area lakes. For Friday...weakening upper trough east of the mountains with low-level convergence and marginal instability for isolated showers possible over southwest North Carolina. Otherwise...surface and upper riding over the Tennessee Valley to produce another unseasonably hot and dry day. .LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...The extended will begin in a quiet weather pattern for the weekend as a strong ridge of high pressure remains in control. This will continue the very warm September temperatures as highs reach into the mid 80s to around 90 across the Valley both Saturday and Sunday. The strong daytime heating may cause limited diurnal convection over higher elevations on Sunday. For the rest of the period...models continue to show differences in timing of an approaching frontal system. Trend have been towards a slower solution with a frontal passage mid week. Ahead of the system...flow will become southerly...allowing low level moisture to move in and scattered convection to develop over the region on Monday. The frontal passage should move in Tuesday into Wednesday...allowing a more organized band of showers and thunderstorms to move through. Drier air should move in behind the system for Thursday.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 92 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 91 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 66 91 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 88 60 87 / 10 0 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$

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