Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 242015 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 315 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
-- Changed Discussion --
WE FIND OURSELVES BETWEEN SYSTEMS...TODAY/S DEPARTED SYSTEM AND SUNDAY NIGHT/S CLIPPER. A FAIR NIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR LINGERING CLOUDS UP NORTH AND OVER THE APPALACHIANS. SUNDAY WILL BE A MILD DAY WITH MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TO THE PLATEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A 20/30 PCT CHANCE THEY WILL SPREAD INTO THE TN VALLEY BEFORE SUNDOWN. THE HEART OF THIS EVENT WILL OCCUR SUN NGT AND MON...SEE BELOW. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MAIN FEATURE DURING THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THEN WARMER BY MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP LATE IN THE PERIOD. MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND NAM HAVE SOME CHANGES BUT THE END RESULT WITH BOTH MODELS LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE LESS SNOW COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE 850MB LOW PASSES JUST TO OUR NORTH THROUGH NORTHEASTERN KY AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS EAST TN. THE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK PUTS US BACK IN PLAY FOR A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE BUT THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE JUST LOOK TOO WARM FOR ANY TYPE OF SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE GFS IS THE MORE ROBUST OF THE MODELS IN TERMS OF MOISTURE BUT IT TOO IS WARM IN THE LOWEST LEVELS LIKE THE NAM. THE NAM WANTS TO BRINGS A WEAKER SYSTEM THROUGH WITH VERY LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWVA...THE FAR NORTHERN PLATEAU...AND THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS WOULD PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE ACCUMS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DUE TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE IT BRINGS IN. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION FOR SNOW AMOUNTS. AS OF NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN PLATEAU COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH...THE CENTRAL VALLEY NORTH OF I-40 A TRACE TO HALF AN INCH...NETN UP TO AN INCH...SWVA 1 TO 2 INCHES...AND ABOVE 3K FEET 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH UP TO 5 ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SMOKIES. ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE DIVES SOUTH FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. PROFILES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY NORTHWARD BUT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE HIGH TERRAIN COULD SQUEEZE OUT AN INCH ACROSS SWVA AND THE SMOKIES BUT ELSEWHERE TRACE AMOUNTS ARE ALL THAT SEEM POSSIBLE. THE TREND STILL CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN RIDGE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD AND PUSH THE TROUGH OUT OF OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE COLDER TEMPS AND PRECIP. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 40S AND BY THURSDAY MID TO UPPER 40S AND NEAR 50. BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO ROLL THROUGH BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA. BUILDING HEIGHTS EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 32 54 36 42 / 0 30 40 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 31 50 35 40 / 0 20 60 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 31 50 35 40 / 0 40 60 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 27 50 35 37 / 0 10 70 70
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ GC/SR

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.