Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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259 FXUS64 KMRX 211810 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 110 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 .AVIATION...Moderately strong upper level trough will continue to drive northeast through the Southern Appalachian region this afternoon. The upper feature is moving so quickly that precip is basically over at cha and should be complete at tys around 20-21z. Would expect light rain to affect tri around 20-23z. Drier air is building rapidly east behind today`s system and should allow for a return to vfr conditions for several hours. Placed some mvfr fog development in the forecast around around 01z-04z but do wonder if this is overforecasting visibility reduction prior to the arrival of the main component of this weekend`s active weather. This component is a relatively deep low pressure system that will shift east from the Southern Plains through the Lower Mississippi Valley from this evening through mid day Sunday. Sufficient instability and deep moisture should be available for thunderstorm formation later tonight into Sunday morning so kept this idea going. Stayed in an mvfr category through this period, but flight conditions may improve to vfr around 12-14z at cha and tys for a few hours before the next wave of showers and thunderstorms builds east ahead of the slowing pressure system. && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$

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