Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 030750 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 250 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FOR THE SHORT TERM...ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND AT TIMES...BUT WILL UNDERCUT MOS POPS TO KEEP THINGS LIKELY BOTH PERIODS. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE TO GO CATEGORICAL IN NORTHERN PLATEAU CLOSER TO THE BETTER FORCING NEAR THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL INCREASE AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...BUT FOR NOW LOOKS LIKE THEY SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND MILD TEMPS. WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM MAV TEMPS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DIFFERENCES IN MODELS/RUNS WITH MODELS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND A BIT WARMER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW BUT OVERALL...SHOULD SEE RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST VA AND THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE FAVORED AREAS. A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL LINGER OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT PULLS AWAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AS ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. THE COLD...DRY AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY... BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE AND RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 60 56 63 34 / 70 70 90 90 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 53 60 31 / 70 70 70 90 OAK RIDGE, TN 56 51 59 30 / 70 70 80 90 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 48 57 28 / 70 70 80 90 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN. VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE- RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. && $$ MJB/LW

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