Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 201851 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 251 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND THURSDAY/...
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A BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION...WITH ONLY SOME BANDS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AND A FEW CU DOTTING THE AREA. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE WARMING THINGS UP...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE AGAIN RISEN INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S IN MOST AREAS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED JUST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION...BUT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING THIS FAR EAST. THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT...AND AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU FROM THE WEST AFTER 00Z. THE LATEST MODEL PROJECTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THIS MOVING INTO THE CHA METRO BETWEEN 00-03Z...AND SPREADING NORTH AND EAST TOWARD TYS AROUND 03-06Z. AFTER 06Z...INSTABILITY DIMINISHES AND THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION MODE WILL BE THAT OF SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN AS THIS ACTIVITY SWEEPS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. AFTER SUNRISE...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VA...ALONG WITH SOME BKN TO OVC LOW CLOUDS. BY THE AFTERNOON... COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...AND THE SKY WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY NW FLOW...HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER /AND CONDITIONS WILL FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID/. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST AREAS...ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ ... THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE NORTH CAROLINA BORDER AS THE MIDWEST SHORT WAVE EXITS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE GOOD WITH DRY ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. SURFACE THROUGH LOW LEVEL RIDGING SLIPS EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY SUNDAY ALLOWING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MODELS TRY TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION ON SUNDAY BUT FOR THIS FORECAST... TRIMMED BACK POPS REGIONALLY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MAINLY ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND KEPT AT SLIGHT CHANCE. SO IT LOOKS BASICALLY DRY FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE AXIS OF A PROTECTIVE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS OUTLOOK APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A MORE WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE BUILDS STEADILY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY TUESDAY PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE RANGE BUT DROPS BACK TO MEDIUM CHANCE BY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THIS FEATURE. THE LONG TERM STARTS OUT RELATIVELY COOL WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BUT THE HEAT CRANKS BACK UP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE WARMEST PART OF THE FORECAST ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 75 51 76 / 60 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 74 49 73 / 50 10 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 61 74 47 74 / 60 10 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 72 45 71 / 60 30 10 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AMP/TH

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