Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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597 FXUS64 KMRX 230728 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 328 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...An upper level ridge will be on the move from the plains states into the eastern third of the nation through the period with a trailing deep upper trough. The gradient of pressure between these two systems will allow for a strengthening southerly flow; initially aloft, but a returning southerly component will also develop closer to the surface a little later in the period. This will keep a few clouds around; especially later this afternoon into the overnight hours. Temperatures should still be able to reach Wednesday`s maximums or a little warmer today while mins will be a little above this mornings readings thanks to the southerly wind direction. .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...A mid/upper level ridge axis will be shifting east of our area to start the period, allowing a deep SW flow to develop. We will remain capped on Friday and Friday night, but precip will begin to approach from the west on Saturday as a closed low moves into the mid MS Valley region. Scattered showers may develop near the Plateau on Saturday afternoon, but the majority of synoptic lift enters Saturday night as the low moves into the lower OH Valley. A negative tilt to the upper low and a LLJ near 50 kts will give a chance of thunderstorms overnight. The NAM tracks the upper low across the KY/TN border while the GFS takes it north of the OH River. In either case, we should see decreasing rain chances through the day Sunday. We will have a brief dry period on Monday between systems, and without a strong push of cold air expected behind the departing system, temperatures on Monday will be quite mild in the 70s. GFS and ECMWF generally agree on an open shortwave trough moving from the Plains into the TN Valley on Monday night and Tuesday. Chance PoPs will be continued for these periods, with a dry day expected on Wednesday as high pressure builds into the area. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 49 70 56 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 64 45 68 51 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 64 46 68 52 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 39 67 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for Hancock-Hawkins- Northwest Carter-Northwest Greene-Sullivan-Washington TN. VA...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for Lee-Scott- Washington. && $$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.