Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 241918 AAA AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 318 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MEMORIAL DAY/... THIS AFTERNOON...UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES HAVE SURGED INTO THE LOWER 80S IN MANY SPOTS AS OF 3 PM EDT. THE MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BROUGHT US SUCH SUSTAINED FAIR WEATHER WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION AS WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING ALONG THE EDGE OF AN UPPER- LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 06Z. THE FEATURE /AND ITS ASSOCIATED 40-50 KT LLJ/...MAY HELP TO KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT...WHICH MODELS SHOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK. A MOIST...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FOR MEMORIAL DAY ITSELF. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED IN NATURE AND QUICKLY MOVE UP AND OUT OF THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH A GREATER AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A WEAKER CAP...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN VALLEY. GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN...AND THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING HAVE NOT GONE AS HIGH AS SOME OF THE MOS VALUES. HAVING SAID THAT...CERTAINLY THINK A REASONABLE CHANCE EXISTS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR...AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH/IF ANY ORGANIZATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. HOWEVER...WITH A SW FLOW AND SOME PEAKS OF SUN /ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST/...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S STILL SEEM LIKELY/. .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... IT SHOULD BE A RATHER WET AND UNSETTLE EXTENDED OVERALL. MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR A RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PROVIDING OUR BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. BROAD RIDGING WITH WEAK UPPER FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT TIMING FOR THE IMPULSES AND THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE SOME DRY TIMES...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS IN FOR FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 81 68 83 / 20 60 50 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 82 67 82 / 10 50 40 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 62 81 67 82 / 10 50 40 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 81 63 79 / 0 30 30 50
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AMP/MJB

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