Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 141827 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 227 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...
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NORTH AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO KEEP AN OVERCAST DECK OVER THE AREA. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE GRIDS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING BECAUSE OF THIS FLOW. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND ON TEMPERATURES...WITH THE LOW TONIGHT AND HIGH TOMORROW NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. .LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...ANY ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NC WHERE THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED. IN THE WAKE OF THIS INITIAL WAVE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL COMMENCE ALONG WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION/HIGH PRESSURE. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE WEEK. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NW FLOW WILL CAUSE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN TN AND SW VA MAINLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS WE LOOK AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MODELS DIFFER WITH THE SPEED OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT IT APPEARS IT MAY BE MOVING INTO E TN LATE NEXT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 82 65 86 / 20 30 30 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 82 64 83 / 10 30 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 60 81 62 83 / 10 20 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 57 79 58 80 / 10 20 20 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ JW/AC

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