Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 251903 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 303 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...
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HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO OUR EAST HAS PLACED THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION UNDER A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER MIDDLE TN. THE BAND IS SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST AND WILL EFFECT THE MRX CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. TONIGHT...A DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ALONG THE UPPER FLOW AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION. ON TUESDAY...A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO OUR WEST AND MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY. A STRAY STORM MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN STATES WILL WEAKEN AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECT FROM THE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE LONG TERM. I KEPT CONTINUITY WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING. BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION AGAIN. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LOWERING RAIN CHANCES WITH MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN TO CONVECTION. FORECAST GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT...AND JUST A MENTION OF SHOWERS OR NO PRECIPITATION FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE WEEKEND FORECAST TRENDING WETTER WITH GFSX MOS POPS RUNNING HIGH CHANCE TO LOW END OF LIKELY. RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY MONDAY YIELDS HIGHEST POPS AT THAT TIME. FOR TEMPS...A MOS BLEND CHOSEN FOR THE EARLY PERIODS THEN GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE SUPERBLEND MOS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 82 67 81 / 60 70 60 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 82 65 80 / 50 70 60 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 65 82 66 80 / 50 70 60 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 80 63 81 / 30 60 60 70
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MJB/TG

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