Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 251840 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 240 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
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CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...BUT WILL THEN BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AROUND NORTHEAST TN OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BRING JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AND STABLE MID LEVELS... WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN MOVING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN EXPECTED. THERE ARE SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE TWO SETS OF GUIDANCE WITH MAXES ON MONDAY...AND WILL GENERALLY COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME FRAME FOR SCATTERED PRECIP. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS. MODEL CONSISTENT POOR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT TRENDS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AREAS BY SATURDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 78 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 76 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 76 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 46 73 43 80 / 10 0 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DMG/MJB

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