Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 270854 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 350 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA EARLY TODAY. WILL SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ESPECIALLY NORTH AND MOUNTAINS...BUT MOISTURE RATHER SHALLOW AND NORTHWEST FLOW NOT VERY STRONG SO DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS. WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN NORMALLY FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS. FLOW STARTS TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASED IN MOISTURE...BUT JUST SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS MOVING IN. WILL GO AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MAV TEMPS FOR HIGHS TODAY...BUT WILL GENERALLY UNDERCUT THEM A BIT FOR MINS TONIGHT GIVEN REMAINING SNOW COVER. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THERE IS FINALLY SOME GOOD NEWS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WE APPROACH THE VERNAL EQUINOX AND START ENJOYING THE BENEFITS OF INCREASING SOLAR RADIATION. THE RESULT WILL BE A BATTLE OF THE SEASONS WITH COLD AIR TRYING TO HOLD ON TO ITS GRIP OVER THE MID LATITUDES. THE BATTLE WILL LEAD TO A NICE AMPLIFICATION TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A DEEP TROUGH FINALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A WELCOME RIDGE FORMING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. EARLY IN THE PERIOD WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENJOY A DRY SATURDAY BUT SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING AHEAD OF A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ON SUNDAY. MODELS TRY TO BRING JUST ENOUGH MOIST AIR ON A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY 85H FLOW FOR A SLIGHT TO SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PROBABILITY OF PRECIP EARLY IN THE INITIAL EVENT BUT STILL TRY TO GENERATE SOME LIFT MAINLY ON THE MAJOR TERRAIN FEATURES FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HELD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES MAY DROP JUST BELOW FREEZING BEFORE RAPIDLY WARMING SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOLLOWING THIS FRONT WILL BE SOME OF THE WARMING WE`VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR BUT...WITH THE WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COME INCREASING MOISTURE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY WILL BE MOVING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT. THEREFORE MEDIUM TO EVEN LIKELY POPS FOR SOME SHOWERS WITH THE WARM AIR RETURN WERE APPLIED THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. NEXT COMES SOME WEATHER WITH THE INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE RELATIVELY SLOW ADVANCING WESTERN STATES LONG WAVE TROUGH. A BROAD BRUSH WAS USED FOR POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A MARITIME PACIFIC COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY A CONTINENTAL POLAR COLD FRONT...COULD EVEN BE A BIT OF ARCTIC AIR WITH THE SECOND FRONT. IT APPEARS TO BE A WET PERIOD BUT AGAIN THE GOOD NEWS IS THE PRECIP WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS. AND...THERE COULD EVEN BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE INITIAL FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 35 25 46 34 / 0 0 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 31 23 42 33 / 10 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 31 22 42 34 / 10 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 30 16 39 31 / 10 0 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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