Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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573 FXUS64 KMRX 211844 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 244 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
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SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST STATES PUSHES MOISTURE AND ENERGY IN FROM THE NNW. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARDS THE EVENING AS DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVES IN AND INSTABILITIES DECREASE. MOST OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF I40 CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE. CHANCE TO LIKELY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN THESE AREAS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTH OF I40. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...BUT WILL HAVE TO UPDATE AS NEEDED. FOR SUNDAY...MODELS TRY TO BRING IN ANOTHER WAY OF PRECIP...MAINLY IN NE TN AND SW VA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITIES ARE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG SO INCLUDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IN AREAS OF SOUTHERN VALLEY AND PLATEAU...THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PERSISTENT AND VERY SLOW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AS IT DEPARTS NORTHEASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION. BUT THE HIGH WILL SOON BLEND INTO THE BERMUDA HIGH LATER IN THE WEEK...BRINGING AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S, MAKING FOR HUMID CONDITIONS AND DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONE FLY IN THE POST-LONG RANGE OINTMENT COULD BE AN EASTERLY WAVE CROSSING FLORIDA NEXT WEEKEND. WILL IT REALLY OCCUR? WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH SEND IT NORTHWARD FROM THERE? WILL WE FIND OURSELVES ON ITS WET OR ITS DRY SIDE? WE SHALL SEE.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 79 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 54 75 54 78 / 30 10 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 55 76 53 79 / 20 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 52 71 50 73 / 40 20 20 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ JW/GC

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