Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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005 FXUS64 KMRX 031930 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 230 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016 .SHORT TERM (TODAY INTO TOMORROW)...
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THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL IS NOW WELL OFF TO OUR EAST...AND BEHIND IT DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS TAKING ITS PLACE. WITH THE SUN ABLE TO COME OUT TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM BEFORE WE GET MUCH COLDER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH MANY PLACES DROPPING INTO THE 30`S FOR A LOW TEMPERATURE. THE COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR AND A CHANCE AT CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY HELP MITIGATE FOG CHANCES OVERNIGHT, BUT A FEW OF THE TYPICAL LOCATIONS COULD SEE LIGHT FOG DUE TO THE RAINFALL FROM EARLIER. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND THAT WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES ONLY REACH INTO THE 40`S. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AS NORTHWEST FLOW INCREASES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AIR IN PLACE AND SKIES CLEAR. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO FORM AND MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW. SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WITH STRONG NW FLOW INTO THE AREA. A FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE PRESENT...WITH LOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. AS TEMPERATURES COOL MONDAY EVENING...THE RAIN WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW. NOT SEEING MUCH CHANCE FOR A BREAK IN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THIS LOW WITH THE AMOUNT OF LIFT PRESENT. MOISTURE INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND IS ABUNDANT WITH STRONG LAPSE RATES TUESDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE AREA LOCATED IN THE POSITION AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY DESCEND...WITH EACH DAY AND EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BEING COLDER THAN THE DAY AND NIGHT BEFORE THAT. AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST...THAT COLD AIR FROM CANADA WILL HAVE MORE OF A DIRECT LINE TO THE AREA...SO EXPECT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES TO BE AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED...DAYS AFTER THE TROUGH STARTS TO IMPACT THE AREA.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 35 49 28 49 / 10 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 35 45 25 45 / 10 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 35 45 26 46 / 10 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 35 44 24 42 / 10 10 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ ABM/JW

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