Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 160820 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 320 AM EST Tue Jan 16 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and Tonight)...A strong cold front will swing through the area today, and sharp mid/upper level trough will dig into the region during the short term period. Models have been consistent in showing a band of light snow moving across the area today into early tonight, although timing has been trending a bit slower. Snowfall amounts continue to look to be in the 1-3 inch range across most of the area, so the advisory looks good but will delay start by a couple of hours. Much colder air will be pushing in behind the front. A few spots may reach wind chill advisory criteria late tonight mainly highest elevations of the mountains and plateau, but since it looks borderline at this point will not issue any wind chill advisory at this time but will mention in HWO. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)...The latest arctic airmass will be in place on Wednesday with a deep upper trough in place keeping clouds around through much of the day. The cold trough slips east Wednesday night into Thursday as the atmosphere reconfigures to a drier zonal flow regime by Friday. The beautiful shift to southwesterly mean flow begins over the weekend bringing milder air along with an increase in moisture. The southerly flow strengthens Sunday into Monday as a deepening mid latitude cyclone drives from the Southern Plains across the Eastern Great Lakes into Quebec. Showers will develop ahead of the surface cold front with main impact Sunday night into Monday. The nice thing about the long term forecast is an approximate ten degree rise in max temperatures each day beginning on Thursday with highs eventually reaching the upper 50s by Sunday with a minor setback due to clouds and rain on Monday.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 32 14 27 16 / 80 30 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 12 24 12 / 90 40 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 29 12 25 12 / 90 40 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 35 15 21 11 / 80 70 10 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 1 AM EST Wednesday for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 1 AM EST Wednesday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Bradley-Cocke Smoky Mountains- East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson- Johnson-Knox-Loudon-McMinn-NW Blount-North Sevier-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe- Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene- Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Washington TN-West Polk. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for Anderson-Bledsoe-Campbell-Claiborne-Hamilton-Marion- Meigs-Morgan-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-Sequatchie-Union. VA...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to 1 AM EST Wednesday for Russell-Scott-Washington. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for Lee-Wise.
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