Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 280755 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 355 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
-- Changed Discussion --
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHERN TN BORDER. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNRISE...WITH A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION TODAY...WITH AN UPPER- LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS LONG WAVE TROUGH. MODELS AGREE THAT THIS SHORT WAVE WILL TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL SET UP THE FORECAST PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS AUTUMN-TYPE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE ABNORMALLY LOW TEMPERATURES OF UP TO 10 TO PERHAPS 15 DEGREES BELOW THAN NORMAL AS THE THE MERCURY IS PROGGED TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY...A PREVAILING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO KEEP THE REGION FAIRLY DRY FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY SPOTTY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY...AND MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE AROUND THAT PARENT LOW ON FRIDAY...SENDING ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL PUSH ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AUTUMN-LIKE AIR INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE BETTER CONFIDENCE IN THIS...HAVE INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY IN DAYS 6 AND 7 TO A SOLID CHANCE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 63 81 59 / 10 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 62 79 57 / 20 10 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 85 62 79 56 / 20 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 57 76 53 / 20 20 10 10
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DMG/AMP

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.