Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 150818 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 318 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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SMALL DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS HAVE ALLOWED AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THE FOG WILL BE DENSE PRODUCING THICK FROST DEVELOPMENT. FOR TODAY...AFTER FOG/LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE BY MID- MORNING...GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY SKY UNTIL MID/LATE AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS SHOW STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES PLACING THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION. THE SYNOPTIC/ FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL PULL A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ELEVATED INSTABILITY. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LOW CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY AS A PASSING UPPER- TROUGH SCOOTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NORTH. BY THE EVENING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO WANE EXCEPT FOR SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG THE TERRAIN. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND EVEN SOME WEAK RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROMOTE DRIER WEATHER...THOUGH SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE DAY. THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE AN UPPER- TROUGH PASSING THRU THE LOWER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD CONSENSUS WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION BEING LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM. SPECIFICALLY...THE GFS TRACK IS MORE NORTHERLY AND A WEAKER OPEN WAVE. THIS WOULD PROMOTE A WARMER...MOSTLY RAIN EVENT. THE ECMWF SHOWS A DEEPER CLOSED LOW MOVING THRU THE AREA...WHICH WOULD BRING IN SOME COLDER AIR AND RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST TN AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONTITOR THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS...BUT FOR NOW 6-7 DAYS OUT...WILL REMAIN CAUTIOUS WITH MAKING TOO MANY ADJUSTMENTS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 46 55 38 / 20 80 20 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 54 42 54 36 / 10 80 30 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 54 42 53 36 / 10 80 30 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 56 37 53 35 / 0 70 50 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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