Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 200653 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 255 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WILL DRIFT EAST INTO E TN AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL COMPACT AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN CAPPED EARLY TODAY BUT WILL BREAK UP SOME BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. AIRMASS DRIES OUT TONIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE E TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATES AROUND THE GA/CAROLINAS REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AND PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL ADD TO THE MIX...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN AROUND THURSDAY PROVIDING OUR BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. A DRIER AND QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 68 88 70 / 40 20 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 66 87 68 / 40 20 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 83 66 87 68 / 40 20 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 63 84 65 / 50 30 20 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SON/MJB

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