Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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135 FXUS64 KMRX 211912 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 312 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016 .SHORT TERM /Tonight and Thursday/... A high pressure ridge remains in control of the weather across the eastern Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachian region this afternoon...promoting light northeast winds and a clear sky which will persist through the day on Thursday. The clear sky and light winds will allow for the development of some patchy fog tonight along area rivers and lakes as temperatures dip into the 60s. For Thursday...northeast flow down the Valley will help to keep highs in check by a degree or two. Still...the mercury will reach the 85 to 90 degree plateau across most Valley locations by the late afternoon. Certainly a warm start to kick off the first day of autumn. .LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Wednesday/... The Eastern U.S. ridge should hold right through the weekend suppressing convection due to subsidence. Forecast models diverge Monday through Wednesday with the European and Canadian holding any widespread precipitation back until Wednesday with a deep upper trough and synoptic cold front. Alternatively, the GFS brings precip in with the upper trough about Monday night. The superblend concept seems to try to "blend" both these scenarios with indication of a system moving into the region on Tuesday but holds onto some pops right into Wednesday. It does indicate a rather significant packet of energy riding northeast out of the Western Gulf behind the frontal boundary, which of course slows the front and generates a good deal of rising motion, deep relative humidity and rainfall. Therefore, some uncertainty toward the end of the extended but the early part appears dry and very warm. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 66 90 69 91 / 0 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 65 88 66 89 / 0 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 88 66 89 / 0 10 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 87 60 87 / 0 10 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ AMP

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