Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 271842 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 242 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MAIN FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS ON THE CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS TRACKING SE OUT OF ERN KY. SEEING SOME ROTATIONS AT TIMES...AND THESE STORMS MAY MOVE NEAR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS. THE BOUNDARY MAY JUST BE DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SINCE REMNANTS OF LATE NIGHT STORMS KEPT CLOUDS OVER SW VA AND EXTREME NE TN TODAY. RAP MODEL AND HRR DATA GENERALLY AGREE WITH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS IN THIS CONVECTION AFFECTING NRN AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING. KEPT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION GOING BEYOND MIDNIGHT SINCE THE COLD FRONT HAS TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS EARLY MONDAY...SO COOLER TEMPS ARE ON THE WAY. HOWEVER...NW FLOW ALOFT DOES HINT AT SOME PASSING WEAK CONVECTION AND VERY LIGHT RAINFALL IN A FEW AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WAS PRETTY MUCH ALREADY IN THE GRIDS...SO I KEPT FOR NOW. FOR TEMPS...GFS MOS LOOKED GOOD FOR MOST PERIODS...OR A BLEND WITH NAM MOS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENJOY A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY AS DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE. MOISTURE WILL VERY SLOWLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SHORT WAVE FEATURES WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH ENHANCING PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS WITH THUNDER MORE LIKELY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM SURFACE THROUGH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVERLAIN BY CHILLY UPPER LEVEL AIR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PERHAPS BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WOULD BE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PROBABILITY BY SUNDAY AS THE OFFENDING TROUGH WEAKENS A BIT. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES ARE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER BUT STILL HAD TO UNDERCUT BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE COOL PATTERN IN STORE THIS WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 72 85 64 83 / 40 20 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 82 61 80 / 60 20 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 70 82 60 80 / 60 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 79 57 77 / 60 20 20 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG

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