Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 221901 AAA AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 301 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/... A QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH CLOUDS AS A SURFACE HIGH HAS SETTLED IN. THE NORTHEAST FLOW AND COOL/DRY POST FRONTAL AIR HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...BUT GOOD HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE HIGH TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW RH VALUES IN THE 30S AND 40S HAVE THIS DAY FEELING MORE LIKE THE FALL THAN THE LATE SPRING. THE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET...AND LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. AFTER A CHILLY START...A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL HELP WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO KICK OFF MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. .LONG TERM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY IN THE EXTENDED FOR QUIET AND CALM WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL THEN TRANSITION INTO AN UNSETTLE PATTERN AS A FRONT AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE IN DURING THE REST OF THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME. THIS PATTERN SETS UP SOUTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL CARRY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD. TIMING OF EACH WAVE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME BUT BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE TN VALLEY FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 53 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 51 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 46 78 55 81 / 0 0 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AMP/MJB

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