Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 011905 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 305 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...QUITE A NICE AFTERNOON AFTER SOME PESKY MORNING FOG DISSIPATED...WITH TEMPS RUNNING QUITE MILD IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS...AND MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE AGAIN NEAR BODIES OF WATER. PLACED THE FOG IN THE GRIDS MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AREA LAKES WITH 1/4 MILE VISBY POSSIBLE. THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LED ME TO GO CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY MILDER NAM MOS MINS FOR TONIGHT. FOG GIVES WAY TO SUNNY SKIES AGAIN ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WRN PARTS AND HIGHER TERRAIN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD SEND MAX TEMPS UP TO NEAR THE GFS MOS VALUES. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WILL PULLING A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE NATION SUPPORTED BY A TROPOPAUSE FOLD HELPING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING CYCLO- GENESIS WHICH RIDES QUICLY NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG UPPER JET WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER THE FAVORED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE DIRECT CIRCULATION WITH THE JET WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING THE FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR FRIDAY. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL WITH CAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE SHEAR...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. BEHIND UPPER JET/TROUGH AXIS...STRONG DRYING EXPECTED WITH A SHARP END OF THE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANOTHER ASPECT OF THE SYSTEM IS THE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -1 TO -2 DEGREES C FOR SATURDAY MORNING. FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE NORTHEAST AREAS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THE MEDIMUM RANGE...GFS AND ECMWF HAVING A HARD TIME WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WAVES MOVING DOWN IN WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 87 66 79 / 0 10 80 100 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 86 61 78 / 0 10 60 100 OAK RIDGE, TN 54 85 62 78 / 0 10 60 100 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 49 84 55 78 / 0 10 20 100 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG/DH

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