Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 161948
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
248 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Friday)...Surface high pressure will
continue to extend into our area as the upper level ridge centered
to our west builds east. Will be some mainly high/mid clouds around
tonight especially north, which will then decrease on Friday.  After
seasonable low temperatures tonight, it will be warmer Friday with
temperatures climbing to well above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)... Upper level SW flow
Friday night will advect moisture into the area and clouds will
start to increase ahead of a closed low tracking across OK/AR/TX.
This looks to be a favorable setup for deep convection near the Gulf
Coast, which would cut off much of the moisture flow to our area.
Therefore, continue to think that precip will be light Saturday and
Saturday night as the low moves across Tennessee. Have limited POPs
to chance categories because of this. Upper level deep ridging and
associated surface high pressure will build in for Sunday through
Tuesday, providing mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures.
Highs should peak around 70 degrees Monday and Tuesday. Clouds begin
to build back into the area Tuesday afternoon, under SW flow again
ahead of the next low pressure system.  This low is progged to track
even further south, moving across TX and into the Gulf of Mexico,
which again would trigger convection across the Gulf Coast and limit
moisture advection over the Tennessee Valley.  For now, have limited
POPs associated with this system around 30 percent due to
uncertainty on how much moisture will be available over our area.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             34  67  45  58 /   0   0  10  50
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  33  64  41  57 /   0   0   0  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       34  65  41  57 /   0   0   0  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              27  63  36  58 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

LW/EMH



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