Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 241839 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 239 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
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DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH CLEARING SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOR PATCHY FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING THROUGHOUT THE AREA. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD ENJOY A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND ON SATURDAY BUT THE WEATHER BECOMES UNSETTLED BY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA. RISING MOIST AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO INCREASING POPS FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER WILL PUSH THROUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT MONDAY MORNING. HELD ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MODELS INDICATE SOME TRAILING MOISTURE AND ENERGY BUILDS INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN U.S. TROUGH. WAS ABLE TO KEEP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY AS COOL NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THE MODELS INDICATE MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIVES DEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THURSDAY WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR THE PRODUCTION OF A COUPLE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. HAD TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 66 88 67 91 / 10 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 64 86 66 89 / 10 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 86 64 89 / 10 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 58 85 59 88 / 10 10 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ JW/TH

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