Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 260849 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 346 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH WILL PULL AWAY TODAY...WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING IN. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER IN THE COLD ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE GIVEN FAIRLY SHALLOW COLD AIR AND LIMITED VERTICAL EXTENT OF MOISTURE. EXPECT TO PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO OVER SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND WILL EXTEND ADVISORY FOR EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 4 PM. WILL ALSO REISSUE SPS FOR SOME OF THE PLATEAU AND SW VA. GFS WANTS TO INCREASE COVERAGE OF PRECIP TONIGHT AS WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS...BUT OTHER MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS SO WILL JUST KEEP FAIRLY LOW POPS MAINLY NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON THE POSSIBILITY OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE...USED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AS WELL AS NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THERE STILL SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WHERE THERE MAY BE ANOTHER HALF INCH ACCUMULATION...PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE IN THE PEAKS ABOVE FIVE THOUSAND FEET IN THE SMOKIES. DRIER AIR STREAMS IN FOR LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED...POSSIBLY WITH SOME FROZEN PRECIP IF THE ACTION STARTS EARLY IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WARMING ABOVE FREEZING. SHOULD BE RAIN WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE CONCEPT OF A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WITH SOME DEEP MOISTURE LAGGING BEHIND THE MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENING...A TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER QUIET PERIOD EXPECTED MAINLY FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL THE NEXT WAVE BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND. A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES DON`T APPEAR TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL OF THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR IN LIQUID FORM. AFTER ALL...IT IS STILL WINTER.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 43 31 47 28 / 20 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 30 41 22 / 50 20 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 41 29 42 24 / 50 20 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 25 35 18 / 80 20 20 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE. TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI. VA...NONE.
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&& $$

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