Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 201526 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1126 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014 .DISCUSSION...UPDATE...BASED ON LATEST HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE DECIDED TO UP POPS FOR SOUTHERN VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LAST FEW RUNS OF HRR SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING BETWEEN 18 AND 19Z ACROSS THE AREA AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH INSTABILITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO 3000 J/KG ACCORDING TO LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS. MAIN THREATS WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA RANGING FROM 15 TO 25KTS AT 0-6KM...THIS WILL PROMOTE SLIGHTLY LONGER LIVED STORMS AS OPPOSED TO THE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PULSE STORMS IF THE STORMS DO MATERIALIZE. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 92 72 94 73 / 40 10 20 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 71 90 72 / 40 20 30 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 88 71 90 71 / 40 20 30 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 65 88 67 / 70 40 50 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SR

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