Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 292030 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 330 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)... A BRIEF POST PRECIPITATION WARM UP HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. A JET SEGMENT IS DIVING SE TONIGHT IN LINE WITH MRX CWA FOR EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE GOOD LIFT OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME MIXED WITH AND CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY MORNING. LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION SO SNOW AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. GOOD UPSLOPE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BRING A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW TO FAVORED ELEVATED AREAS. A FEW RIDGE TOPS IN SW VA MAY SEE TWO INCHES BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE BELOW SNOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THUS LEFT OUT OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW. GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND FRONT. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LEANED TOWARD THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAYS MAX TEMPERATURES. .LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... QUIET WEATHER TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THINGS PICK UP WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. MOST MODELS NOW HAVE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING NEAR THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA. SHOULD THIS SOLUTION PAN OUT IT WOULD LEND TOWARDS MOSTLY LIQUID PRECIP IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WHILE A RAIN/SNOW MIX DEPENDING ON THE TIME OF DAY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND MAYBE REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WHEN EVERYTHING IS SAID AND DONE. OF OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER THE LOW MOVES EAST OF US OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WE GET INTO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE DAY. THIS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL COULD ADD UP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR OR ABOVE WARNING CRITERIA FOR SNOWFALL. WOULD LIKE TO SEE ANOTHER RUN OR TWO OF MODELS HITTING ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE SINCE PREVIOUSLY THEY WERE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL THE LATEST RUN. WE GET A SHORT BREAK OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ANY EXACT DETAILS THIS FAR OUT AND WITH ANOTHER MAJOR SYSTEM SITTING BETWEEN US AND IT. BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20`S WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS RISE INTO THE 40`S WHICH WILL LEND ITSELF TOWARDS A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW. HOPEFULLY AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER THE DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 43 26 51 / 20 10 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 31 38 21 47 / 40 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 31 38 23 46 / 30 10 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 29 33 18 43 / 60 10 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON- SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE- UNICOI. VA...NONE. && $$ SON/ABM

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