Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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477 FXUS64 KMRX 281909 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 309 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)... A WEAK RIPPLE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY TO TOUCH OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-40. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GONE BY MIDNIGHT. AFTERWARD...MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH THE RADIATIONAL COOLING BEFORE SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A DRY AND QUITE WARM DAY FRIDAY. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... A RELATIVELY WET WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR US AS A SLOW MOVING LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF THE AREA DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND. CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ON SUNDAY, BUT AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT LOOK TOO LIKELY. HOPEFULLY THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE TO BRING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER OUR AREA AND HELP RELIEVE THE MINOR DRY SPELL THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING. AT THIS POINT THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW TO HANDLE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT WELL OFF TO OUR EAST AND HAS LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS THE FRONT MORE ON SHORE AND LEADS TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. BOTH MODELS THEN DEPICT A SECONDARY FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE WEEK LEADING TO ANOTHER CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 59 87 61 83 / 10 10 20 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 58 82 58 80 / 10 10 20 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 57 83 60 79 / 10 10 20 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 53 79 52 79 / 20 10 10 50 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ GC/ABM

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