Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 101850 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 250 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING GENERALLY ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS...WITH A VERY HUMID AIR MASS LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. AREA RADARS REVEAL SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...AND WILL PROBABLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE AROUND THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL TREND A LITTLE WARMER THEN GUIDANCE WITH MINS TONIGHT SINCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SLOWER THAN THE MODELS EXPECTED. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THOUGH THURSDAY)...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCE OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR BEST CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...AND WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 91 69 92 / 20 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 90 67 91 / 20 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 65 90 66 91 / 20 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 89 63 90 / 20 10 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DMG/MJB

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