Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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913 FXUS64 KMRX 241845 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 245 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017 .SHORT TERM... A cold front moves to our east tonight with high pressure building in. Drier air and thinning clouds will lead to overnight low temperatures slightly below average. There could be some patchy fog in localized sheltered valleys tonight where winds will be calm and soil moisture is high, but widespread fog is unlikely with light winds and dry air keeping the boundary layer lightly mixed. Sunshine should be prevalent on Sunday, but troughing across the Eastern U.S. should keep temperatures cooler than average in the short term. .LONG TERM... We will continue with calm weather with the drier northwest flow and slight troughing in the mid levels. ECMWF wants to show a weak shortwave zip across the region on Tuesday bringing in precipitation to our northern counties, but the other long term models are not depicting this at this time. Will go with a slight chance of precipitation on Tuesday, but still expect most locations to not see rain for several days. Surface high pressure will move from west to east over the area during the week helping to continue the clearer skies and warmer temperatures for the second half of the week when the high is situated right over us. Towards the end of the work week and into the weekend the high will move far enough off the eastern seaboard that we will start to get more moisture rich air from the Gulf of Mexico. This combined with temperatures right around normal for this time of year will allow for some diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms to develop. Determining exact location of these diurnally driven storms is a bit difficult at this time, so have gone with widespread precipitation chances over the area over the weekend even though many places might not see rain at all during this entire 7-day forecast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 83 59 83 / 10 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 62 80 58 80 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 60 81 56 80 / 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 78 53 77 / 0 10 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ JB/ABM

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